“Selling bonds, buy Bitcoin,” proclaimed a popular social networks account last week, echoing the feelings of many cryptography defenders who believe that the volatility induced by the rate in the United States treasure market, a cornerstone of global finances, has revealed the fragility of the monetary system called in dollar. However, institutions are not buying this narrative.
Until Monday, the 11 ETF of Bitcoin Spot that are listed in the US, considered a proxy for institutional activity, were on the way to registering the second highest monthly monthly exit of more than $ 800 million, according to the Sosovalue data source. Funds bleed a record of $ 3.56 billion in February and $ 767 million in March.
Meanwhile, three -month treasure bills auctioned on Monday caused a strong demand for institutions. According to the CME data source, the US Treasury sold $ 80 billion in invoices of three months at an interest rate of 4,225%, compared to the previous 4,175%. Similarly, it sold $ 68 billion in six -month bills at a slightly higher interest rate than prior to 4.06%.
However, the supply-crooked ratio, which represents the number of offers received in relation to the number of accepted offers, for three months invoices increased to 2.96 of 2.82. In other words, for each three -month bill offered, almost 3 times more offers were received. The ratio for six -month tickets increased marginally to 2.90 of 2.79.
The strong absorption indicates that institutions still see the debt of the United States as a shelter. T invoices are highly liquid and are considered low risk, which makes them the preferred option for the guarantee in the repo market (repurchase agreement). In a repo transaction, one part sells t-bills or other values to another, agreeing to repurchase them later, allowing the seller to access short-term funds.
Institutions generally park money in T invoices when the economic perspective is uncertain, asking for flexibility in investments instead of commitment to long -term positions.
The complete commercial war of President Donald Trump against China and other important commercial partners has increased uncertainty to such an extent that there is the possibility of a sudden blackout in the corporate gain guide on Wall Street. According to INC, the 3 -month guidance ratio of Bofa, which tracks the number of previous companies versus the guide below the consensus, has fallen to 0.4x, the weakest since April 2020 and below its historical average of 0.8x.
Meanwhile, the chances of recession of the United States have increased above 50% on betting platforms, with high yields of Japanese bonds that further complicate things for risk assets.
