The cryptocurrency market fell overnight, with bitcoin falling 1.5% from the high it reached in the early hours of Wednesday.
The broader market followed suit. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) fell 1.6% since midnight UTC and all members of the index fell.
Bitcoin’s sell-off after failing to break above $94,700 last week has extended a bearish trend that began in early October with a series of lower highs.
To break the downtrend and stage a recovery, the largest cryptocurrency needs to trade back above $95,000 and ideally $98,000, although year-end catalysts remain absent.
However, much of the market is in “oversold” territory according to the cryptocurrency’s average Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is at 38.49/100, indicating the potential for a near-term relief rally.
Derivatives positioning
- BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, represented by Volmex’s BVIV, remains below 50% annualized, suggesting calm in the market ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision.
- BTC’s historical 90-day volatility is now consistent with top tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, a sign of market maturation.
- BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex have reached their highest level since February.
- Open interest (OI) on futures tied to most tokens including BTC and ether has decreased in 24 hours. BCH, UNI and NEAR stand out with moderate increases in OI.
- On Deribit, writing at bitcoin’s $85,000 strike price and buying writing at $95,000 and $100,000 prices point to expectations of wide range play in the near term.
- Block flows featured risky crossovers and reversals in BTC and call calendar spreads in ether.
- Overall, both BTC and ETH puts remain more expensive than calls, pointing to lingering bearish concerns and call options being overwritten.
symbolic talk
- The altcoin market continues to show weakness against bitcoin trading pairs, with bitcoin dominance increasing to 58.7% from 57.8% on November 26.
- ASTER and TAO are the two worst performing altcoins in the top 100, recording a downward movement of 6.5% and 6.1% since midnight UTC.
- ASTER’s decline extends a bearish trend from the opening of the weekly candlestick on Monday, with it down over 20% as enthusiasm around BNB chain derivatives trades continues to wane.
- There were a handful of bullish outliers in the altcoin market, including monero. up 0.2% since midnight and Cardano’s privacy token, NIGHT, up over 5% by mid-morning in Europe.
- The “altcoin season” indicator is at 19/100 as the market remains firmly focused on bitcoin since the October sell-off.
