Galaxy Digital’s head of enterprise-wide research, Alex Thorn, says 2026 may be one of the most difficult years to forecast for bitcoin, even as the company maintains a long-term bullish outlook.
In a December 21 post on Thorn said the comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report, “26 Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions to 2026,” which outlines the firm’s expectations for cryptocurrency markets and institutional adoption.
At the time of writing, Thorn said that the broader crypto market was already in a bearish phase, with Bitcoin struggling to reestablish sustained bullish momentum. Until the asset trades decisively above the $100,000 to $105,000 range, he said, downside risk remains.
What the options markets are signaling
Derivatives markets underscore that uncertainty. According to Thorn, bitcoin options pricing implies roughly equal probabilities of markedly different outcomes next year, and traders assign similar probabilities to prices near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026 and near $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.
Options markets are widely used by institutional investors to hedge future price risk, and such wide ranges suggest that professionals are preparing for large price swings rather than a clear directional trend.
Signs of structural maturity
At the same time, Thorn pointed out signs of structural change beneath the surface. He said bitcoin’s long-term volatility – a measure of how widely prices fluctuate over long periods – has been declining. He attributed part of that shift to the growth of institutional strategies such as option overwriting and yield-building programs, which tend to curb extreme price movements.
That evolution is also visible in bitcoin’s volatility smile, which describes how option prices vary depending on exercise levels. Thorn said downside protection is now priced more expensively than upside exposure, a pattern more commonly seen in mature macro assets, such as stocks or commodities, than in high-growth markets.
Why a quiet year may not matter
For Thorn, those signals help explain why a potentially limited or “boring” 2026 wouldn’t undermine bitcoin’s long-term case. Even if prices decline or approach long-term technical levels, such as the 200-week moving average, expect institutional adoption and market maturation to continue.
Beyond the short-term price action, Galaxy’s long-term conviction rests on deeper institutional integration.
In its Dec. 18 report, the company said a major asset allocation platform could incorporate bitcoin into standard-model portfolios, a move that would integrate the asset into predetermined investment strategies rather than through discretionary transactions. Such an inclusion would direct persistent flows into bitcoin regardless of market cycles, reinforcing Galaxy’s view that structural adoption, rather than short-term volatility, will determine outcomes through 2027 and beyond.
Thorn believes that expanding institutional access, potential easing of monetary conditions, and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could position bitcoin to follow gold’s path as a hedge against monetary debasement. Galaxy predicts that the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
