bitcoin fell below $107,000 in the Asian session on Friday, extending a slow decline as macro uncertainty and liquidity stress kept traders cautious in crypto markets.
“The rally on Sunday and Monday did not develop and the 50-day moving average acted as local resistance,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “The market is again testing the strength of the 3-month support near current levels. Such persistence of the bears suggests that the next leg will be a test of the 200-day average, which exceeds $3.5 trillion.”
“The market surpassed this line in May; touching it at the end of July triggered strong buying,” Kuptsikevich said, giving signals on levels to monitor.
The market recovery from last week’s sell-off shock appears to have faded, with a bounce earlier in the week reversing and major tokens falling each day.
Ether traded around $3,895, while BNB, Solana, and XRP fell between 5% and 7%, each giving back most of their post-crash bounce. and Cardano’s ADA are down more than 20% so far this week amid a lack of speculative fervor.
The tone in risk markets soured overnight as traders turned to stablecoins again, avoiding bitcoin and smaller tokens ahead of the Federal Reserve and key geopolitical catalysts.
“Altcoins are under pressure as liquidity continues to return to Bitcoin and stablecoins amid risk-off sentiment,” Wenny C., chief operating officer at SynFutures, said in a message to CoinDesk, adding that thinner order books have amplified volatility in secondary markets.
Despite the red screens, analysts say the pullback looks more like controlled deleveraging than panic. Stock market open interest has fallen to mid-year lows and ETF inflows remain stable, suggesting long-term capital remains stable.
“This latest drop reflects the decline in speculative appetite following last week’s macroeconomic data,” Wenny said, noting that “nothing structural has really changed.”
Nassar Achkar, chief strategy officer at CoinW, said leveraged flows tend to establish cleaner foundations.
“Resilient ETF inflows and whale accumulation are stabilizing markets. The path to a sustained rally will depend on how quickly this underlying capital converts to new risk-taking,” Achkar told CoinDesk.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting, where traders will expect a strong dovish speech after Chairman Jerome Powell hinted last week that quantitative tightening could end soon.
Futures imply a 65% chance of a 25 basis point cut, which would extend risk support through the end of the year if confirmed.
Outside cryptocurrencies, gold briefly hit a new record before retreating, while the yen strengthened on safe-haven bids after renewed trade jitters between the US and China. The standoff has injected volatility into commodities and stocks, dragging Asian shares to their lowest level in two weeks.
Still, some see opportunity in the turbulence. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the drawdown a “buying window,” while K33 Research said the reduced leverage leaves “room for BTC spot positions to rebuild.”
The current reset reflects pauses from the last cycle, where leverage was depleted before new capital came back in. Whether that rotation occurs before or after the next signal from the Federal Reserve will likely define the rest of October.
