Social sentiment around large companies has deteriorated markedly in recent days, according to Santiment, and traders have become noticeably defensive as prices continue to fall.
That type of fatigue usually appears near inflection points (not at the beginning of new downtrends) and the data is starting to reflect it.
“Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000 for the second time this month. Unsurprisingly, this has sparked a wave of FUD and worrying social media posts from retail traders,” the company said. “Santiment sentiment screens now show Bitcoin with an unusually flat bullish-bearish ratio, Ethereum with only a marginally positive bias, and XRP at one of its scariest readings of the entire year.”
Charging…
Historically, when retail trading turns negative on multiple large-cap assets at once, capitulation tends to follow, clearing out weak hands and restoring supply for larger players.
Chain readings support a bottoming outlook. Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit (NUP) ratio has fallen to 0.476, a level that historically signals short-term market lows, as CoinDesk noted on Wednesday.
The NUP ratio has previously caused price bounces, with Bitcoin seeing double-digit percentage rallies after similar readings in several cases in 2024.
This change in mood comes as the broader market remains under pressure. The total capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen to $3.47 trillion, extending a month-long bearish trend.
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted in an email to CoinDesk that while short-term attempts to form a bottom are visible, rallies are still met with strong selling, which is a classic signature of a medium-term correction rather than a structural break in the cycle.
Bitcoin’s drop towards $102,500 earlier (and now trading near $98,000) on Wednesday triggered another wave of realized losses among large wallets that bought around $110,000.
But on-chain data also shows that these flows are being absorbed by new participants, and institutional positioning is leaning cautiously bullish towards the end of the year. Sygnum’s latest survey reveals that 61% of institutions plan to increase their exposure to cryptocurrencies ahead of planned altcoin ETF launches and regulatory developments in 2026.
Strategic flows are adding weight to that vision. Strategy, now one of the largest public Bitcoin holders, accumulated 487 BTC last week at an average of $102,557, bringing its total stash to 641,692 BTC.
On the Ethereum side, currency reserves have fallen to their lowest level since May 2024, indicating a positive medium-term trend that generally reflects accumulation rather than distribution.
The market continues to fall, but the ingredients for a reflexive rally are accumulating: negative sentiment, strong clusters of prolonged sell-offs behind prices, falling foreign exchange balances, and sustained institutional buying.
Retail may be taking a step back, but the biggest players appear to be preparing for the next leg, a setup that has historically preceded short, sharp pullbacks rather than deeper capitulation.
