Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $66,609 on Wednesday, giving back Tuesday’s gains after Trump’s prime-time address to the nation promised to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks instead of offering the de-escalation that markets had priced in.
All the important chips in the top 10 fell. Ether fell 2.2% to $2,056, BNB fell 3.9% to $591, XRP lost 2.5% to $1.31 and Solana’s SOL led the losses with 5.2%, extending its weekly decline to 13%.
The sell-off reversed a strong global rally that had developed through Tuesday due to Trump’s earlier comments that the war could be over within weeks and that a deal with Tehran was not a prerequisite. Asian stocks had risen 4%. S&P 500 futures had risen. The atmosphere was the most optimistic since the conflict began five weeks ago.
Then the speech happened. In nearly 20 minutes, Trump outlined no change in policy toward Iran, provided no details on how operations would unfold and signaled no path toward a ceasefire.
The Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping route that has been effectively closed since mid-March, would “naturally” reopen once hostilities subside, he said, without offering a timetable.
Brent crude jumped 5% to over $106 a barrel. Asian stocks fell 2.1%. US and European stock futures fell more than 1.2%. The dollar strengthened. Treasuries fell on concerns about inflation.
The crypto-specific image is now familiar to the point of numbing. Bitcoin has spent five weeks bouncing between about $60,000 and $73,000, selling off on every rally headline, rallying on every de-escalation headline, and ending roughly where it started.
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 8, deep in extreme fear territory, where it has been stuck between 8 and 14 for the past month.
There is a seasonal argument for optimism. April has historically been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, finishing in the green 10 out of 15 years with an average gain of 20.9% versus an average drop of 8.8% in down years. Bitcoin also bounced firmly off its two-month uptrend support near $60,000 last week and is attempting to reclaim the 50-day moving average.
But seasonality is not against a war. The pattern of the last five weeks (hope, headlines, reversal) shows no signs of breaking until the conflict itself does.
