Investors seeking security and growth seem to have reached an unexpected consensus in 2025: that of bitcoin failing to capture either exchange.
This sentiment is evident in a year-to-date comparison of widely followed major assets, including stocks, gold, the 10-year Treasury bond, bitcoin, industrial metals such as copper and the dollar index.
Gold, a traditional safe haven and hedge against inflation, has risen 70% to an all-time high of over $4,450 an ounce, outperforming all other major assets by a wide margin. Copper, widely considered a barometer of global economic health, is the second best performer with gains of 35%, according to TradingView source.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 17% and 21%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury bond has lost 9% and bitcoin is down 6%. The dollar index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of fiat currencies, has fallen almost 10%.
The fact that the polar opposites (gold, the ultimate fear hedge, and copper, an essential industrial anchor with ties to AI) are the two best performers, while BTC, the supposed digital gold and fintech, is down, suggests a shift in investor preference towards tangible assets in the face of macro and political concerns and the rise of AI.
Earlier this year, safe haven demand, driven by macro and political issues and fears of fiat currency debasement, along with the rise of AI and a positively evolving regulatory outlook under the Trump presidency, were widely cited as ultra-bullish tailwinds for BTC. But that has not materialized.
This is mainly due to the crypto community embracing BTC as digital gold rather than emerging technology, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
“The emerging narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ has failed to fully convince Wall Street investors. Many crypto narratives marketed to institutional investors now resemble stories of passive allocation, staking returns, or long-term value preservation, rather than compelling use case-driven growth themes,” Thielen told CoinDesk.
“However, there is little evidence that a new cohort of investors is significantly attracted to passive exposures to cryptocurrencies, limiting new capital inflows,” he added.
Investors have snapped up gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising fiscal concerns across the advanced world, political tensions fueled by tariffs, fears of fiat currency debasement and a potential threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, investors looked beyond BTC as a high-end technology, even as the rise of AI generated a huge windfall for a diverse set of assets, ranging from obvious tech stocks to the record rally in base metals like copper.
The red metal has been driven higher by the overlapping trend of electrification, digital infrastructure and geopolitical tension alongside slower supply growth, as Geopolitical Monitor recently noted.
BTC lacks sovereign supply
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, attributed BTC’s poor performance to the absence of a sovereign bid for the cryptocurrency.
“Gold is the ‘hard asset’ for global central banks and sovereign players. As sovereigns hedge their assets from dollar currencies, gold has been the beneficiary,” Magadini told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a more “portable” asset for individuals to hedge their exchange rate devaluation risk.”
He explained that BTC, being more speculative, has a demand base from investors with higher risk tolerance, such as retail investors, hedge funds and investment companies, rather than established sovereign entities.
“At least that’s the case today. Hence the big performance divergence in 2025,” he said, adding that the next bullish leg in BTC needs sovereign adoption as ETF adoption, positive regulatory outlooks and digital asset treasury narratives have been fully priced in.
Gold’s rise since 2023 has been driven in part by increased purchases by central banks, especially in Asian countries. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased 254 tons of gold from January to October.
building energy
While bears may view BTC’s inability to capture a safe haven and AI bid as a sign of inherent weakness, that is not necessarily the case, according to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital, who said the cryptocurrency is generating energy for a big rally.
“Gold’s breakout is not a bearish signal for Bitcoin. Gold has been leading BTC for about 26 weeks, and its consolidation last summer coincides with Bitcoin’s pause today. The metal’s renewed strength reflects a market that increasingly prices further currency devaluation and fiscal stress through 2026, a backdrop that has consistently supported both assets, with Bitcoin historically responding with greater torque,” Harland said.
He added that BTC consolidation is therefore generating energy rather than signaling weakness.
“The longer BTC remains still, the more explosive the eventual move tends to be, positioning it to react strongly as debasement trading accelerates,” Harland joked.
Key takeaways for the global economy
Gold and copper are outperforming other assets, but gold’s stronger rally over copper indicates that markets are simultaneously betting on two contradictory futures: AI-driven growth (copper) versus fears of systemic failure due to unsustainable fiscal debt (gold).
More importantly, gold’s outperformance shows that anxiety about the global financial system overtaking the AI-led boom.
While both gold and copper have hit record highs this year, the copper-gold ratio, a barometer of global economic health and risk sentiment, has fallen nearly 20% to the lowest level in more than two decades, according to data source TradingView. It is a telling sign that the global economy is in a “late cycle” or “fragile expansion” environment driven by AI but weighed down by fiscal, trade and geopolitical concerns.
The most important conclusion is the flight towards tangibility.. When gold and copper hit record highs and the dollar index, Treasuries and stocks underperform, it means the market no longer trusts “paper (fiat) currency pledges” or assets that are pure fiat liquidity play.
