The cryptocurrency market continued to show signs of turmoil on Friday, with bitcoin trading at $67,000 in the middle of a trading range dating back to early February.
A selection of altcoins rallied during Asia’s leanest hours, leading companies like ALGO and RENDER to post double-digit gains in the past 24 hours.
But the bigger picture remains the same; The cryptocurrency market is trading in a bearish macro trend dating back to October, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows.
US stocks are trading flat on Friday as volatility continues to cool since Donald Trump’s comments about a possible end to the war in Iran on Monday.
Brent crude oil is trading at $109 a barrel, indicating that the end of the war may not be as close as some analysts predict.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets remained weak, with the long holiday weekend keeping trading volumes low. Open interest in both assets remained virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours.
- Open interest in Solana futures has risen to over SOLA 65 million, its highest level since February 7. The rise, combined with negative funding rates and an OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, suggests traders are increasingly positioning themselves for downside, with short sellers showing greater conviction.
- Similar bearish market dynamics occur in TRX and BCH.
- OI in privacy-focused Zcash futures (ZEC) has stabilized near 1.70 million ZEC for the third day in a row. ZEC’s CVD is also the highest among large companies. This combination suggests sustained positioning with strong directional conviction, likely driven by aggressive buying pressure.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index has decreased to 51.28%, the lowest since February. The market shows no signs of panic despite geopolitical concerns and energy market volatility.
- Ether’s volatility index has fallen to 72.55%, the lowest since February 26.
- On Deribit, bitcoin and ether put options continue to trade higher than call options, indicating a bias toward downside protection.
- Glassnode said dealer gamma exposure below $68,000, up to $50,000 is negative. This means that traders could sell in a falling market to hedge their exposure, which would increase downside volatility.
symbolic talk
- The altcoin market has been relatively resilient to choppy cryptocurrency behavior this week, with certain parts of the market outperforming major bitcoins and cryptocurrencies, particularly DeFi and AI tokens.
- The DeFi Select Index (DFX) is up 1.3% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) is up 1.5%, outperforming bitcoin-heavy benchmarks like the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which rose just 0.16% on Friday.
- The outperformance of certain altcoins is symptomatic of a consolidating market. When bitcoin and majors are trading flat, traders often speculate in less liquid altcoins. That speculation usually stops when Bitcoin again decides the next major market move.
