Trump may be willing to abandon war with Iran. Markets are still unsure what that means.
Bitcoin was trading at $67,545 on Tuesday morning, roughly unchanged for 24 hours after recovering from a drop below $65,200 that briefly marked its lowest level since the war began in late February. Ether remained above $2,000 at $2,062, up 0.4% on the day. Solana SOL fell 0.9% to $83.07, XRP fell 2.2% to $1.32, and dogecoin fell 2.1% to $0.09. SOL and XRP led the weekly losses in the top 10 with 8% and 6.4% respectively.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Trump and his advisers assessed that opening the Strait of Hormuz would push the conflict beyond his four- to six-week timeline, and that the president told advisers he is willing to end the campaign even if the strait remains largely closed.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% following the report. WTI crude erased an earlier jump to $107 and settled near $103 after Iran hit a Kuwaiti crude oil tanker in Dubai earlier in the session.
The crisis culminated a brutal streak for traditional markets. The S&P 500 is now on its longest daily losing streak since 2022. The MSCI Asia Pacific is heading for its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis. Treasuries extended their gains and the dollar weakened against most G10 currencies.
The relative performance of cryptocurrencies continues to stand out in that context. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.32 trillion, virtually unchanged over the past week, a period in which the Nasdaq 100 fell about 5%. Bitcoin has spent the entire war trading between roughly $65,000 and $73,000, selling off on every rally but refusing to fall structurally even as stocks form a clear downtrend.
“Cryptocurrencies have pulled back, but they look stronger than stocks,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Although the cryptocurrency market remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it is finding support in declines to the lows seen since early February, demonstrating horizontal stabilization following the decline, while stocks are forming a bearish trend.”
JPMorgan noted on Monday that bitcoin is weathering the Iran crisis better than gold and silver, a notable observation given that gold’s unprecedented losing streak has been the most disorienting sign in global markets for weeks. The traditional safe haven is falling during an active war, while the asset that is supposed to be volatile maintains its range.
The question heading into April is what a possible end to the conflict really means for cryptocurrencies.
A ceasefire would eliminate the overall risk that has kept Bitcoin range-bound, but a closed Hormuz even after a U.S. pullback would keep oil elevated and inflation expectations rigid, complicating the rate cut path the market has been hoping for.
Monday’s drop below $65,200 and quick recovery above $67,000 looked like a search stop that found real demand below. Whether that demand persists into April depends on whether Trump’s willingness to end the war becomes a real off-ramp or just another headline in a month that has been full of them.
