Bitcoin may no longer move in step with Federal Reserve policy, according to a new report from Binance Research, which points to a structural shift driven by spot exchange-traded funds.
For years, crypto markets reacted sharply to interest rate signals, and bitcoin fell as central banks tightened monetary policy.
That pattern now appears to be breaking, as data from Binance shows that bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned strongly negative since 2024. Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024.
Before ETFs, the relationship was slightly positive, with BTC tending to follow global easing cycles for several months. Now, the report finds that the opposite effect is almost three times stronger, suggesting that the old link has been reversed.
The change reflects a change in who controls prices. Retail investors once dominated cryptocurrency trading and reacted to macro news. ETFs allowed institutions to play a larger role, and these companies often positioned themselves months ahead of policy changes, treating BTC as a forward-looking asset.
“As a result, BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘laggard taker’ to a ‘leading price setter,’” Binance Research wrote. “A spike in easing may already be old news for BTC, and crypto-native drivers such as policy progress and institutional flows could matter more than the direction of monetary easing itself.”
The findings come as markets grapple with renewed fears of stagflation linked to rising oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions over the war in the Middle East.
Rate expectations have ranged from projected cuts to possible increases, a backdrop that has historically pressured risk assets.
Binance maintains that the reaction may be overblown. In previous cycles, central banks often pivoted to support growth despite inflation spikes. If history repeats itself, central banks will eventually prioritize growth over inflation, and Bitcoin is likely to price in that shift sooner than expected.
