A familiar voice returns with a familiar and controversial call about bitcoin .
Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, reiterates that bitcoin could fall to $10,000.
But this time, he has framed it with a very clear line in the sand: $75,000.
If bitcoin recovers decisively and maintains that level, the bearish thesis is broken. If it can’t, McGlone’s view is that the path of least resistance is markedly lower, with prices falling to $10,000, the level last seen in early 2020.
The $10,000 magnet
McGlone’s super bearish forecast of a drop to $10,000 is not new. It has been floating around for weeks and is based more on market structure than short-term catalysts.
The cryptocurrency spent a long period hovering around $10,000 before the massive wave of fiat liquidity hit the markets following the coronavirus-induced 2020 crash. That era of zero rates, stimulus checks and aggressive liquidity easing by central banks drove unprecedented risk-taking in all corners of financial markets. It played a major role in lifting BTC permanently above $10,000.
“Before the biggest money bomb in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin was around $10,000, and may be reversing. About $10,000 is also the most traded price for the first-born cryptocurrency since 2017, when futures were launched,” McGlone noted on LinkedIn.
Now that that era of abundant liquidity is behind us, McGlone suggests that bitcoin can return to what he considers its equilibrium price: around $10,000.
According to him, $10,000 has been the most traded price zone since 2017, when CME futures began trading. In other words, $10,000 isn’t just a round number: it’s where a huge amount of historical volume is found.
McGlone also points to the explosive growth of the cryptocurrency market as a potential drag on bitcoin. In 2017, bitcoin largely defined the space, but today, millions of tokens compete for attention and take capital away from the industry leader. In his opinion, this increase in supply has become a structural obstacle instead of a tailwind.
“Unlimited cryptocurrency supply and use case rivals are obstacles for Bitcoin,” McGlone said on LinkedIn, adding that stablecoins represent “the most enduring trend” in cryptocurrencies. Expect ether to be bigger than ether and eventually bitcoin.
“I expect the ‘shift’ to continue, with Tether’s AUM surpassing Ethereum in 2026 and eventually Bitcoin,” he said.
The invalidation level of $75,000
McGlone’s bearish forecast depends on prices remaining below $75,000. This level has been a major turning point for market trends over the past 12 months. The March-April 2025 decline lost steam around $75,000, while the early 2024 rally stalled there. Additionally, $75,000 corresponds to key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Think of it as a market verdict threshold. A sustained move above would suggest that bitcoin has reestablished strong structural demand, ending the downtrend that began at October highs above $126,000. It would imply that institutional flows, macroeconomic conditions, or both are strong enough to override your reversal thesis.
If it fails to get there, or is rejected again, the argument changes: Bitcoin may still be trapped in a long-term decline to $10,000.
