There is a 15-point peace plan on the table and bitcoin stands at $71,000, as if the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran could really end.
Brent crude fell 4.7% to $99.55 on Wednesday, breaking below the $100 level it had held since mid-March, after Bloomberg reported that the United States had drafted a 15-point plan to end the conflict with Iran and delivered it to Tehran via Pakistan. Israel’s Channel 12 reported separately that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire. Asian stocks rose 1.9%. The dollar weakened. US and European futures pointed to further gains.
Bitcoin was trading at $71,019, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours, but still down 6.4% on the week. The weekly loss reflects the swing from last week’s $75,000 high to the weekend’s 48-hour ultimatum panic and Monday’s cascade of two-holder liquidations.
The daily movement is quieter and more constructive, with bitcoin holding above $70,000 for the third day in a row.
“Although the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalize on the bullish momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among bulls,” FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in an email.
Ether (ETH) gained 1.7% to $2,164, but is down 9.2% for the week, the worst-performing major in seven days. XRP (XRP) added 0.2% to $1.42, a weekly decline of 8.5%. Solana rose 2.5% to $91.69, but lost 3.8% for the week. BNB fell 0.5% to $638, down 6.8%. gained 1.7% to $0.094, but is still down 7.5% for the week. Tron (TRX) was the only major green in both time frames, up 0.8% daily and 4.4% weekly.
The 15-point plan is the most concrete diplomatic development since the war began on February 28. Trump has been pushing talks publicly, but the structure, participants and terms have been unclear until now. The plan reportedly includes a ban on Iran obtaining nuclear weapons or enriching radioactive material, although not all details have been revealed.
The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, with only a small number of vessels in transit.
Brent’s fall below $100 eases inflation headwinds that have been squeezing risk assets for a month.
Every dollar off the price of oil marginally improves the odds that the Fed will hold rates instead of raising them, preventing the liquidity environment from worsening. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the S&P remains high, but sensitivity has been asymmetric throughout the war.
Bitcoin has remained largely stable since the war began, but all major altcoins are down between 4% and 9% on the week. The market has spent four weeks absorbing headlines, cascades of sell-offs and oil shocks, and the net result is a range that has neither risen nor collapsed.
The only question that matters this week is whether the 15-point plan leads to a real ceasefire or becomes another headline that Tehran denies within hours.
