The cryptocurrency market continues to trade within a tight range on Wednesday, with bitcoin rising 0.9% to around $68,000 as of midnight UTC.
The largest cryptocurrency has remained between $65,100 and $72,000 since February 6, as market volatility has reduced following a February 5 sell-off that took BTC to its lowest point since October 2024.
The altcoin market is leading its own race. Monero (XMR) and are posting gains of 3% and 1.7%, respectively, since midnight, while zcash (ZEC) and hyperliquid (HYPE) lost 3.5% and 1.1% over the same period.
The weak performance across the cryptocurrency market comes as US stocks begin to climb out of trouble: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 0.57% and 0.66% since midnight UTC as investors await clues on monetary policy when the Federal Reserve releases its meeting minutes later on Wednesday.
Derivatives
- Market dynamics have shifted towards stabilization as open interest remains firm at $15.5 billion, marking a transition from clearing leverage to a stable floor.
- While retail sentiment has cooled and funding rates have turned stable to slightly negative (Binance at -0.11%), institutional conviction remains anchored, three-month annualized base persisting at 3%.
- The BTC options market has reached a state of relative equilibrium, with 24-hour volume split 49/51 between calls and puts.
- While the 25-week delta bias has further narrowed to 11%, the term structure of implied volatility (IV) remains in backwardation in the near term, as evidenced by the strong initial spike in the IV curve before stabilizing near 49% for longer term terms.
- Coinglass data shows $193 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 62-38 split between long and short positions. BTC ($72 million), ETH ($52 million), and others ($12 million) were the leaders in terms of notional settlements.
- The Binance settlement heatmap indicates $68,800 as the central settlement level to monitor in case of a price surge.
symbolic talk
- The “altcoin season” indicator has risen to 34/100, from lows of 22/100 on February 8, indicating relative strength across the altcoin market despite relatively low levels of volatility.
- Wednesday’s best performing asset was the Trump family-backed DeFi token, which is up 8.8% since midnight and 18.52% in the last 24 hours.
- Investors are betting on WLFI ahead of the crypto project forum at Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday, which will be attended by executives from Goldman Sachs, Nasdaq and Franklin Templeton, among others.
- It should be noted that rallies leading up to real-world events or announcements often result in a “selling the news” scenario, as those who “buy the rumor” race to secure profits.
- Lending platform Morpho’s native MORPHO token has also been on a bullish streak lately, rising 36% last week and 7% in the last 24 hours as traders try to capitalize on an otherwise stagnant market.
