bitcoin rose as high as $72,000 during European time on Friday, rising 2% since midnight UTC and outpacing gains in US stock indices.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures fell during Asian trading hours before recovering. Both are now green. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surpassed 100, a move that typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Today, however, the cryptocurrency market seems relatively immune to that pressure, with notable gains across the board. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is up 1.1% since midnight.
If bitcoin can break above $74,000, a level it has failed to penetrate recently, with compelling volume, it could trigger a breakout back to the $80,000 region. Otherwise, it is likely to return to a trading range dating back to February 5.
The war in Iran continued on Friday morning, with new attacks detected in Tehran and Dubai, keeping oil around $100 per barrel.
Derivatives positioning
- Cumulative industry-wide futures open interest (OI) rose 5% to $107.6 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating continued capital inflows as bitcoin and other tokens remain stable amid turmoil in global stock markets.
- Bitcoin (OI) rose to 687,200 BTC, the most since February 25. Ether (ETH) grew to 13.72 million, the highest level since January 30. Annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas for both remain positive, a combination that indicates an investor bias toward bullish bets.
- In XRP, OI rose almost 10% to $1.86 billion, the highest since February 6. Coupled with positive funding rates, this suggests a renewed deployment of investor capital for bullish bets. Open interest in SOL, ADA, and SUI futures also saw notable increases.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV) fell to a two-week low of 55%, supporting the case for continued spot price rallies. Ether volatility is also falling. This stability contrasts with the greater volatility in the US Treasury market.
- On Deribit, bitcoin put options remain more expensive than call options, a sign of persistent demand for downside protection. For ETH, the put premium on the long end has almost evaporated, suggesting a bullish reset.
- Block flows presented demand for bitcoin sell spreads and ether buy spreads.
symbolic talk
- The altcoin market also showed strength on Friday. The US president-themed TRUMP memecoin surged more than 30% in 24 hours after the announcement of a “gala lunch” with Donald Trump for the top 297 token holders.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) tokens Bittensor (TAO) and artificial superintelligence alliance (FET) are up 14% as investors continue to speculate on a broader market breakout.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is now at 40/100, its highest point since January 9.
- CoinDesk’s Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the main benchmark in the last 24 hours, having increased by 6.5%. It was followed by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and the DeFi Select Index (DFX), which rose 4% and 3.7%, respectively.
- A laggard in the last 24 hours has been the canton (CC). The institution-focused Layer 1 network token is down 4%, bringing its loss over the past month to 11%.
