bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe haven assets like gold in the two months following major global crises, according to new analysis from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The study, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the Latin American crypto platform, examined 60-day windows following economic or geopolitical shocks such as the COVID-19 outbreak and US tariff escalations. Bitcoin posted stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 in each of the periods analyzed.
In April of last year, after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs, the price of bitcoin jumped 24% over the next 60 days. Gold rose 8% and the S&P 500 gained 4%, the company found.
A similar pattern emerged at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when BTC rose 21% while other assets lagged behind.
Szuster warned that judging bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.
“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you know how it ends,” he said. “At times like this, investors sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and even defensive assets can fall.”
That happens when investors struggle for liquidity, but bitcoin has steadily recovered, the company found. The pattern appears to repeat itself in the current conflict between the United States and Iran, where bitcoin is the only one of the three assets in positive territory so far, according to Szuster.
The data supports this. Since the war began, bitcoin has risen more than 2.2%, from around $65,800 to $67,300 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, gold, the traditional safe haven, has fallen about 11%, while the S&P lost 4.4% of its value in the index’s steepest monthly drop since 2022.
Despite its volatility, bitcoin was the best-performing asset over the past decade, he added.
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