Good morning, Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is trading around $109,000 as Hong Kong begins its trading day, as traders continue to digest Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that another rate cut is not a sure thing, cooling demand for BTC ETFs and other risk assets.
Polymarket traders now assign a 71% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, well below the 90% before Powell’s comments. The probability of no change has increased to 26%, showing how quickly traders recalibrated expectations after the press conference.
According to CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, US investors’ demand for cryptocurrencies has cooled sharply. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, one of the weakest readings since April, while ether inflows have nearly stagnated. Coinbase premiums for both coins have dropped to near zero, and the CME futures basis has fallen to multi-year lows, indicating that both institutional and retail traders are taking profits rather than adding exposure.
Glassnode’s on-chain analytics paint a similar picture of waning conviction. Bitcoin continues to struggle below the cost base for short-term holders of around $113,000, with long-term holders distributing approximately 104,000 BTC per month. Transfer volumes from these wallets to exchanges have increased to $293 million per day, suggesting that savvy investors are cashing in on weakening demand.
The broader crypto market reflected that fatigue. Solana fell 8% on Thursday, as CoinDesk previously reported, to $186 despite the launch of the first Solana spot ETFs in the US.
Bitwise’s BSOL raised $116 million in two days, and Grayscale’s GSOL attracted $1.4 million, but the token’s decline wiped out its year-over-year gains. Sentiment was further affected by large on-chain transfers from Jump Crypto to Galaxy Digital, leading to speculation about portfolio rebalancing.
With moderate volatility metrics and balanced positioning, traders are now eyeing the Federal Reserve’s next move. Right now, Polymarket traders are assigning a 55% probability of no change, which has increased marginally since Powell’s recent comments.
When the US government officially reopens and data is released that paints a worse picture of the economy than currently known, Powell’s stance could change. And cryptocurrency traders will be watching.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin fell about 5% in the past 24 hours to around $109,800, giving back its previous weekly gains as traders reacted to Powell’s hawkish comments and declining US ETF inflows.
ETH: Ether fell 1.8% to around $3,850, extending its month-long decline as U.S. spot ETF inflows slowed to near zero and demand for futures weakened.
Gold: Gold fell $16.50 to $3,984.70 and silver fell to $47.89 as Powell’s hawkish comments after the Federal Reserve’s rate cut dashed hopes for further easing and lifted Treasury yields.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks rose on Friday after Trump and Xi agreed to ease trade tensions in South Korea, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 1% to a new record.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Drake and Adin Ross Sued for ‘Deeply Fraudulent’ Promotion of Crypto Casino (Decrypt) Participation
- UFC-Backed FIGHT Token Sale Raises $183 Million, Exceeding $1.5 Million Goal (CoinDesk)
- Western Union Files Trademark for ‘WUUSD’ One Day After USDPT (Decrypt) Stablecoin Revealed
