Tiger Research focused on Asia has established an objective price of the third quarter of $ 190,000 for Bitcoin (BTC), arguing that registering global liquidity, the demand for structural ETF and the new access 401 (k) gives the market its largest configuration since 2021.
The Tiger model obtains a “base price” of $ 135,000, then layers in multipliers for foundations (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%) to reach the prognosis of $ 190,000, which gives 67%of the average of $ 113,000 this week.
The report is based on three key controllers. The M2 money supply greater than $ 90 billion, ETF and corporate accumulation now represent 6% of Bitcoin’s offer, and a regulatory green light that has opened US retirement accounts. UU. A Crypto.
Trump’s executive order that allows exposure 401 (k) adds what Tiger calls “a definitive signal of Bitcoin’s transition to central institutional possession.” Even a 1% allocation from the $ 8.9 billion group is equal to almost $ 90 billion.
The accumulation is visible. ETFS collectively has 1.3 million BTC, while the strategy (MSTR) has more than 629,000 coins, for a value of $ 71 billion. Buying through convertible bonds has given strategy flows a structural quality. Transfer volumes were also biased larger, with fewer transactions but larger sizes, which reflects a pivot from retail traffic to institutional blocking activity.
Even so, the report admits that the network seems unbalanced. Daily transactions and active users remain well below last year’s maximums, and retail participation has vanished. New initiatives such as BTCFI are needed to turn the activity back beyond institutional wallets.
The meters in the chain also flow by caution. MVRV-Z, which tracks to what extent the market price has extended above what the holders originally paid, is located in 2.49, an area that in the past cycles has preceded the corrections as profits accumulate.
The adjusted worn -up production ratio (ASOPR) is in 1.019, which means that the coins sold only have profits, suggesting that merchants are blocking modest profits instead of charging at the ends.
Net -made profits/losses (NUPL), a measure of profits and losses not made throughout the network, is 0.558, indicating a healthy but not euphoric positioning. Taken together, the data suggest a market that is hot but is not yet overexposed.
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