A Bitcoin (BTC) breakdown earlier this week makes merchants consider the level of $ 100,000 in the next few days, an euphoric trade that could be of short duration as May’s seasonality approaches.
“Historically, the next two months have been weak for financial markets, with many investors respecting the sale in May and away the Adagio,” said Jeff Mei, director of Operations of BTSE, to Coindesk in a telegram message.
“That said, the markets have had a lower performance significantly in recent months, but this year the trend could reach, with Bitcoin that reaches $ 97K and other growth actions that return in recent weeks. Last week, the weak numbers of GDP last week that leave the United States indicate some risk, as another report of the negative growth of the GDP the next quarter would indicate a recession To a summary too, “the Mei added.
Adagio “sell in May and disappear” is a long -standing season in traditional financial markets.
It suggests that investors must sell their holdings in early May and return to the market around November, depending on the belief that capital markets have a lower yield during the summer due to lower commercial volumes, reduced institutional activity and historical yield data.
The phrase dates back to the first days of the London Stock Exchange and was originally “selling in May and leaving, returning to San Leger’s day”, referring to a horsepower race in mid -September.
What data they show
Historically, US stock markets have demonstrated weaker performance from May to October than from November to April, which leads to the strategy to become a seasonal July for some investors.
Bitcoin also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows and retail feeling. Coinglase data show that the May performance of assets has been recently negative or silenced.
In 2021, BTC fell 35%, one of its worst months that year. In 2022, May was again negative, with a 15% drop in the middle of the moon collapse. In 2023, BTC was flat to slightly positive, which reflects the volatility off. BTC appeared 11% last May and ended 52% in May 2019, an outstanding performance of all months after 2018, when it is believed that cryptographic markets have matured after the Altcoin cycle of that year.
Network May months are followed by more decreases in June, according to data, and four of the last five months of June end in red.
These patterns do not guarantee future performance, suggest that encryption markets may be increasingly reacting to the same macro and seasonal feeling as actions, especially as more institutional capital enters space.
Caution signal?
Merchants can be cautious according to the seasonality of historical prices and the impulse of fading after strong manifestations Q1. Altcoins, especially meme coins, can be particularly vulnerable to setbacks, given their recent manifestations and speculative flows.
“Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average gain of only 1.8% from May to October, with positive yields in approximately 65% of those six -month periods, well below the stronger performance seen from November to April,” Vugar Usi Zade, director of Operations of Crypto Exchange Bitget, told Coindesk in a telegram message.
In the last 12 years, the average returns of Q2 (April-June) for BTC have been 26%, but with a median only 7.5%, an atypical yield sign and recurring volatility.
For the third quarter (July-September), the average performance falls to 6%, and the median becomes slightly negative, which suggests a pattern of fatigue or post-Q2 consolidation, Zade added, citing data.
“This seasonality overlap suggests that precaution is directed to May. Historically, the Q4 marks the strongest seasonal period of Bitcoin, with an average yield of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, while Q3 tends to offer more extinguished or negative results,” Zade said.
In summary, while Wall Street calendars do not bind to cryptography, market psychology still responds to narratives, and “sell in May” could become a self -fulfilling prophecy, especially if technicians begin to break and turn feelings.
