The price of Bitcoin plunged sharply over the weekend, falling below $78,000, its lowest level since April, as profit-taking collided with dwindling liquidity and a dearth of new buyers.
Traders told CoinDesk that a rally once supported by corporate demand, particularly Strategy (MSTR) bitcoin purchases, has run out of steam, leaving markets vulnerable to fire sales and derivative liquidations.
For some market analysts, Saturday’s decline fits into a broader bearish pattern that has been emerging for months. Eric Crown, a former NYSE Arca options trader, has argued since late October that bitcoin is in a sideways down phase, and that optimism around a return to new highs – or a rotation from metals back to cryptocurrencies – is a misplaced “hopium” for bulls.
“It has been my opinion since [the] “At the end of October BTC is in a sideways and bearish phase… I don’t think 80K is a macroeconomic low for bitcoin,” Crown, which now publishes updates on the cryptocurrency market with more than 200,000 subscribers, told CoinDesk, underscoring that the recent price action may be part of a broader corrective regime.
And the action in the options market supports this bearish sentiment. Options traders are now increasingly betting that prices will fall below $75,000 and abandoning their bullish bets of reaching $100,000. So much so that the dollar value of the number of active bitcoin put option contracts at the $75,000 level listed on the Deribit platform now stands at $1.159 billion, almost matching the so-called notional open interest of $1.168 billion locked in the $100,000 call option.
Read more: Here’s why bitcoin traders are now betting billions on a drop below $75,000 and leaving the price going higher
Bearish signals
Crown points to several technical indicators that have historically foreshadowed deeper corrections.
The monthly MACD, a technical trading indicator, crossed lower in November, a rare sign that has preceded prolonged declines in previous cycles.
Additionally, the weekly EMA of 21 vs. 55 (another technical indicator) recently crossed into bearish territory. When this happens, losses of several months usually follow. And the 2025 yearly chart closed as a “shooting star,” a candlestick pattern that often indicates a medium-term reversal.
Bitcoin at $50,000?
Making matters worse for bulls, bitcoin has drifted away from traditional markets since October, falling while stocks and other risk assets held up, a pattern Crown sees as typical of late-cycle risk-averse behavior.
“People generally sell the most speculative assets first,” he said.
Beyond the technicals, Crown highlights the speculative failure of the October crash, which wiped out many leveraged positions in altcoins and left traders wary of re-entering high levels.
Read More: Crypto’s ’10/10′ $19 Billion Nightmare: Why Everyone Blames Binance for the Bitcoin Crash That Won’t End
While not as extreme as some cyclical bears, Crown suggests bitcoin may fall to even lower levels (potentially between $50,000 and $60,000) before stabilizing.
In fact, he says that range represents an area he is personally considering adding to his long-term positions, framing the current market as a potential value accumulation phase rather than the end of the broader cryptocurrency cycle.
