Where bitcoin is traded from here: Expect patience before the next higher leg.
- Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways between approximately $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year.
- “There is still a lot of Bitcoin for sale for around $100,000,” he said, pointing to positioning in the options market.
- A breakout is more likely later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macroeconomic risks are assimilated.
Why precious metals are important: Gold’s rally reinforces the long-term case for bitcoin.
- Hougan said gold’s rise reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and the risk of asset seizures.
- Silver, he added, looks like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
- Over time, he hopes that dynamic will channel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.
Central banks are turning around, slowly: Interest is increasing, but adoption is years away.
- Hougan said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks in several regions.
- Those institutions are still asking fundamental questions about the security and risks of bitcoin, not implementation details.
- He expects central banks to eventually own bitcoin (potentially more than gold), but said the timeline is probably 10 to 20 years.
The $6.5 million bitcoin call: A long-term bet on monetary reality.
- Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach approximately $6.5 million per coin in the next 20 years.
- The central assumption, he said, is not to accelerate adoption but to continue global debt growth, money printing and currency devaluation.
- He argued that bitcoin is a superior version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role.
- “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we’ll get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Remove: Volatility compression is key for institutions.
- Hougan said declining bitcoin volatility is critical to institutional adoption.
- He often tells allocators that bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own.
- Bitwise expects volatility to continue falling while bitcoin remains the fastest growing major financial asset.
Final take: Short-term court, long-term conviction.
- Hougan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but is not necessary for the long-term trajectory of cryptocurrencies.
- Even without clarity, expect ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to continue expanding.
- “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”
Watch the full interview.
