A rotating cast of leading candidates has upset Polymarket’s bets on the next Federal Reserve chair, but the new favorite, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, has argued that bitcoin will replace gold and recommended that people should hold it in their portfolios.
Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, has shot to the top of President Donald Trump’s list of potential picks in prediction markets, and has frequently supported cryptocurrencies.
Already in 2020, in the much earlier days of digital assets, he said that bitcoin would replace gold as a store of value, “because it is much more functional than passing a bar of gold,” he said in an interview with CNBC. And more recently, he told the same outlet that bitcoin should be part of a smart investment mix, saying the leading digital token and gold were “things that give you a little bit of ballast in your portfolio.”
In that September interview, when bitcoin was still above $112,000, he predicted that “it’s going to go up.” The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $88,000, having recently fallen due to potential tariffs and other geopolitical turmoil.
Trump has to make a decision before the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom the president has labeled his economic nemesis, expires on May 15. It was Trump who originally placed Powell, a Republican, in that pivotal role, but the president has since routinely bemoaned his performance, calling him “dumb” and “stupid” and nicknamed him “Mr. Too Late.”
Meanwhile, Trump has often mocked the favorites for his replacement, making for a volatile prediction market. Rieder has said it is “an incredible honor to even be mentioned on that list.”
Rieder openly shares Trump’s frustrations with the leisurely pace at which the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. In a recent interview during the president’s trip to Davos in Switzerland, Trump called Rieder “very impressive” and his odds on Polymarket have risen from less than 3% to nearly 53% at their peak, before settling at 48% today.
For the crypto sector, a Fed chair can pull multiple levers. Aside from having great influence on the group that sets the federal funds rate, the president controls the board’s regulatory agenda. However, Powell has referred the decision to Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on the Fed’s oversight work.
So Rieder’s crypto enthusiasm may not play a significant role in the rules the regulatory side of the Fed writes for things like stablecoins or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
More than a policy mechanism, a Federal Reserve chair has a softer role as a major voice on the health and direction of the U.S. economy, and a staunch bitcoin advocate in that position would be a first.
Although Powell will soon step down as chairman, his tenure as a regular governor on the Fed board continues, leaving some doubt about whether he will take the traditional route and leave after his leadership expires or stay on for another two years. Each board member has an automatic seat on the Federal Open Market Committee that decides U.S. interest rates, meaning a decision by Powell to stay would maintain her generally centrist position on that group and not open another seat for a Trump appointee.
Trump’s relentless criticism of Powell intensified last month when his Justice Department said it was investigating the central bank chairman over his public descriptions of renovations at the Federal Reserve buildings in Washington. Powell gave a direct and unusual response.
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the president’s preferences,” Powell said.
