Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone, who previously said bitcoin could fall to $10,000, is reiterating his call that bitcoin could still fall below that level, a prospect that several market analysts said would require an extreme macroeconomic shock.
In an interview with ElliotoTrades, McGlone said the cryptocurrency bear market may not be over and warned that bitcoin could remain vulnerable if global risk assets appreciate sharply.
McGlone’s forecast was met with rebuttals from several market analysts who said that while they agree, there is an additional downside to bitcoin. If possible, a drop to $10,000 would likely require an extraordinary global liquidity event.
“Analysts often get lost in the short-term macroeconomic noise and sometimes extrapolate to foolish conclusions,” said Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics.
“For an asset like bitcoin, which regularly sees tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in daily trading volume in global markets, to reach $10,000 again we would need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the Internet to stop working.”
bitcoin It is currently around $70,000, after trading between $69,000 and $71,000. BTC’s price surge appeared to coincide with oil quickly reversing most of its session’s big gains, falling $3 per barrel within minutes. Other crypto assets, including ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP, also saw upward moves.
McGlone based his bearish analysis on broader macroeconomic conditions. He believes bitcoin has increasingly been traded in conjunction with other speculative assets as institutional participation in cryptocurrency markets has grown, weakening the narrative that cryptocurrencies serve as an uncorrelated hedge against traditional markets.
According to McGlone, the crypto sector remains caught in a broader macroeconomic crisis driven by deflationary pressures, a speculative oversupply, and what he sees as an inconclusive correction in traditional risk markets.
There may still be more disadvantages
Other analysts, who see potential for a further decline in the bitcoin price, also echoed Greenspan’s sentiment that McGlone’s price target is unlikely.
“A move towards levels like $28,000 would likely require a significant contraction in global liquidity, a rise in credit spreads or a broader financial stress event rather than simply a late-cycle slowdown,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder and market analyst at AdLunam.
Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, also said Bitcoin could suffer further downside, but described the $10,000 prediction as highly unlikely.
“There will always be analysts who come up with extreme price targets during a bear market,” Randin said. “Can we go down to $10,000? Yes, it is possible, but I see it as very unlikely.”
Randin expects Bitcoin to gradually decline in the coming months, adding that the next major accumulation zone could emerge between $30,000 and $40,000.
“If the market is in a downtrend, you’re in a bear market,” Randin said. “You’re going to remain in a bear market until the primary trend changes.”
However, in the short term, he expects bitcoin to remain largely within the range between $60,000 and $70,000, warning that even a rally towards $80,000 could prove temporary if broader macroeconomic pressures persist.
The bottom may already be in
Greenspan said identifying an exact market bottom is difficult, but noted that Bitcoin may have already completed its major bear market correction.
“Trying to pick an exact fund is silly,” he said. “Structurally, bitcoin has already surpassed its major bear market in 2022. We are currently seeing a roughly 50% pullback from the all-time high, which is not unusual for bitcoin.”
He added that recent price developments have been encouraging and that it is “quite possible that we have already hit bottom.”
McGlone, however, believes the market still needs to go through a prolonged cleanup of speculative excess before a lasting bottom can form.
“I think it’s going to last a while and I don’t think it’s going to end until we purge some of this excess,” he said.
“It’s a bear market,” McGlone added. “Sell rallies.”
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