By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Risk-off sentiment deepened in Asian trading as bitcoin price It briefly fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before stabilizing near $91,000, a 4.5% drop in 24 hours.
While the main alternative cryptocurrencies such as BNB and SUN They also fell, surpassing the largest cryptocurrency. Most of the top 100 coins are in the red, except for a handful of exceptions like ASTER, HYPE, KYPE, and ICP.
Some experts attribute BTC’s double-digit monthly decline primarily to lower expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
“The probability of a cut fell from about 70% to 42% in just one week, amplified by the absence of other macroeconomic data,” said market maker Wintermute. “[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell walked back the almost certain December cut and forced investors to examine the individual preferences of FOMC members, revealing that the cut was far from consensus. The response was immediate: US risk assets softened and cryptocurrencies, the most sentiment-sensitive risk asset, were hit the hardest.”
But there is a positive side. Data from ING shows that open interest in bullish options on US Treasuries has increased recently, a sign that traders are betting on higher prices and lower yields.
This stance suggests they are anticipating weaker US economic data to revive hopes of faster rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. ING noted that with just 15 basis points priced in for a December cut, the scope for initial rates to extend to the dollar is significant. In other words, there is room for further dollar weakness.
For Bitcoin bulls battered this month, this outlook could signal a turning point. Historically, falling yields and a weaker dollar have offered fertile ground for a cryptocurrency rebound. The key question remains: When will this moderate repricing of Treasury bonds extend to risk assets, helping bitcoin and the broader crypto market regain its footing?
For now, the US Dollar Index remains firm, poised to extend Monday’s bounce from 99.00 and potentially retest the August 1 high of 100.25, a level that acted as resistance earlier this month. It will be crucial to observe your approach and interaction with this key level. A clear break above 100.25 could increase pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- Nov 18, 8:15am: ADP Weekly Employment Change (previous -11.25K).
- November 18: 10:30 am: Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr’s speech on “Banking Supervision.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nov 18: KULR Technology (KULR), post-market, N/A.
- Nov 18: Solana Company (HSDT), post-market, N/A.
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The Render (RENDER) community is voting on whether to expand their software to include enterprise-grade GPUs (such as H100/H200). Voting closes on November 18.
- is hosting an analyst call on the latest developments in project governance and economics at 9 a.m.
- is hosting an analyst call to cover roadmap and fundamentals at 10.30am
- Unlock
- Token releases
- lists on Coinbase with the TON/USD pair.
- listed on OKX with the pair ZEN/USDS.
- Datagram Network (DGRAM) listings on Bitget with the DGRAM/USDT pair.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.48% as of 4 pm ET Monday to $91,437.01 (24 hours: -4.32%)
- ETH is up 1.85% to $3,061.45 (24 hours: -4.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% to 2,963.20 (24 hours: -3.93%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 8 Basis Points to 2.91%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0084% (9.1761% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 99.60
- Gold futures fall 0.86% to $4,039.30
- Silver futures down 0.96% to $50.22
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.22% at 48,702.98
- Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 25,930.03
- The FTSE is down 1.05% at 9,573.79
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 1.33% to 5,565.93
- DJIA closed Monday down 1.18% at 46,590.24
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.92% at 6,672.41
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 22,708.07
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.83% at 30,076.21
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 0.78% to 3,087.59
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 2.3 basis points to 4.11%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.3% at 6,672.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.32% at 24,798.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 0.32% to 46,514.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.96% (-0.8%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03351 (1.96%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,103 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $37.94
- Total fees: 4.48 BTC / $420,601
- CME Futures Open Interest: 136,705 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 22.7 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 6.13%
Technical analysis
- The VIX index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, is breaking out of a prolonged range, suggesting it might be time to be a volatility bull on Wall Street.
- Rising volatility in stocks could spill over into cryptocurrencies, further amplifying the already elevated volatility environment.
- Still, it’s unclear whether the breakup will hold or fade, as it did last month.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $263.95 (-7.06%), -0.37% to $262.97 in the previous market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $76.59 (-6.47%), +0.25% at $76.78
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.04 (-4.94%), -1.36% at $24.70
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.75 (-4.5%), -0.14% at $36.70
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.51 (-4%), -0.52% at $11.45
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-0.5%), -0.5% at $13.81
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.79 (-0.94%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.61 (-3.19%), -0.66% at $10.54
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.92 (+0.94%), unchanged from the previous market
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $17.3 (-4.68%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $195.42 (-2.17%), -0.61% at $194.22
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.02 (-8.25%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.29 (-5.51%), -0.29% at $10.26
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.60 (-13.21%), -0.19% at $2.59
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.90 (-5.94%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$254.6 million
- Accumulated net flows: $58.58 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$182.7 million
- Accumulated net flows: $12.97 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million
Source: Farside Investors
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