The cryptocurrency market is a sea of red as persistent trade tensions and liquidity shortages in the US financial system drive demand for safe-haven Treasury notes.
bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day SMA to trade near $104,500, representing a 6% decline in 24 hours. Other important tokens like ether , solarium , and BNB They have dropped between 8% and 12%.
The CoinDesk 20 index has fallen almost 9% to 3,389 points. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, indicating extreme investor fear for the first time since at least the April market turmoil.
According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, the sell-off represents a tactical liquidity event superimposed on macroeconomic uncertainty.
“Positioning should be defensive, reduce leverage, keep cash dry and use staggered spot purchases between $104,000 and $108,000 if liquidity allows,” Misir said in a note to CoinDesk.
“Structural narratives (ETF adoption, Treasuries, network fundamentals) remain intact, but the current environment rewards discipline: defend BTC core, act carefully on ETH and alts, and wait for confirmation of sustained buying flows before rebuilding directional risk,” he added.
Derivatives positioning
- The BTC futures market is showing stability, with open interest holding steady at approximately $25.7 billion and the 3-month annualized basis remaining firm in the 5-6% range. In a significant change from previous days, funding rates are now holding steady across all major venues.
- The BTC options market is showing extreme and contradictory sentiment. The 24-hour sell/buy volume shows a slight bearish bias with a 45-55 split favoring puts. However, this is dwarfed by the 1-week Delta 25 skyrocketing by about 21%. This exceptionally high positive bias indicates aggressive positioning and a huge premium being paid for short-term call options, indicating strong conviction of a near-term rally despite active demand for downside protection.
- Coinglass data shows $1.2 billion in 24-hour liquidations, with a 78-22 split between long and short positions. ETH ($414 million), BTC ($268 million), and Others ($109 million) were the leaders in terms of notional settlements. The Binance settlement heatmap indicates $103,800 as the central settlement level to monitor, in case of a price drop.
symbolic talk
By Oliver Knight
- The entire cryptocurrency market is reeling on Friday after continuing lower with several assets hitting multi-month lows.
- Ether is trading at $3,730 after falling more than 7% in the last 24 hours, while BNB, LINK, and SUI are down more than 10%.
- The move was prompted by the liquidation of another $1.2 billion in derivatives positions, $840 million on the long side, adding to last weekend’s woes, when $19 billion was liquidated.
- Stocks are also showing weakness: the S&P500 lost 3.3% of its value last week, a sell-off that is being reflected in the more illiquid and speculative cryptocurrency market.
- Much of the altcoin market depends on the bitcoin address; If it can hold above the $100,000 psychological support level and perhaps more importantly the $98,000 level, it could provide the impetus for altcoins to rally.
- If those levels are breached, viewers will wonder if the cryptocurrency market is falling back into a feared bear market, a cycle that many analysts suggested would not occur this time due to institutional flows into cryptocurrency ETFs and the purchasing power of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.
