Cryptographic analyst and macroeconomist Alex Krüger believes that the market looks ugly enough to become optimistic.
On Saturday, Krüger wrote in X, that “most cryptographic graphics now look so broken and bearish that it is optimistic.” He argued that when the price action looks so badly, panic has generally gone far enough for an investment not to be far behind.
The bearish graphics
Krüger attached a series of paintings from the Binance and Derivative panels.
They included Bitcoin and ether (Eth) The spot price graphics, which had fallen below the ascending trend lines in the short term, creating a technically bassist image. He also published a Solana Graph that showed a relative resilience compared to BTC and ETH.
Together with them, he shared graphics of BTC-UUSDT and ETH-USDT derivatives, which combined futures indicators, such as long financing and liquidations rates, with options of options such as bias. Together, they showed that the merchants had become strongly defensive.
Restoration of liquidations and leverage
In his position, Krüger said long liquidations had been “significant”, especially in “the last two rounds after today’s closure.”
In futures markets, merchants can borrow to take bullish bets. When prices fall, their guarantee is noted and exchanges close positions automatically. This type of forced sale pushes prices even more in a waterfall. However, once it ends, markets can stabilize because excess leverage has already been eliminated.
Farmers under pressure, Alts Standier
The analyst also stressed that Bitcoin and Ether absorb most of the sale, while many Altcoins had already stopped hitting earlier in the day. Normally, the smallest chips collapse after the specialties, not before them.
For Krüger, that divergence is “often a sign of the next force”, which suggests that the sale of panic can be decreasing.
Krüger told the followers to “check the bias”, and said the positions were much more expensive than the calls. In options markets, that imbalance indicates defensive positioning and greater fear.
For opposites such as Krüger, unilateral fear often precedes a rebound, because if all are already covered, there are fewer sellers to raise prices.
The FOMC catalyst
While it is “optimistic in the next week,” Krüger said he does not expect strong trends until after the next Federal Reserve Policy meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) It meets from September 16 to 17, with a rate decision and a press conference to the conclusion on September 17.
He expects the Fed to reduce interest rates, which argues that “it does not have a total price.”
The lowest rates reduce the cost of loans already often add liquidity, which can increase the demand for risk assets such as cryptography.
The view of the cycle
Krüger emphasized that this is not the end of the cycle, even if prices fall more in the short term. At the same time, it does not expect the type of euphoric “top” that has marked the markets of Crypto high beyond.
The only exception, he said, could be Sol, that he continues to attract entries from new decentralized treasure bonds that deploy capital on the network.
For Krüger, the configuration is simple: the liquidations are ugly, the liquidations are behind, the price of the options shouts fear and the Fed decision looms. His message was simple: the time to bet on the positive side is when panic is stronger, not when the celebrations begin.
