Good morning, Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Crypto markets have entered a holding pattern midweek.
Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% on the week, while Ether is changing hands near $3,815.
The rally reflects what QCP Capital called a “narrow-range equilibrium” as traders await Friday’s CPI report, the only major U.S. economic data release not delayed by the shutdown.
In its note, QCP said the CPI is the “singular anchor” for political expectations and risk sentiment, noting that a softer 0.2% figure could “re-anchor soft landing trading” and support Bitcoin’s bullish bias as liquidity expectations improve. Until then, volatility is likely to remain elevated and declines will find support if the dollar and real yields decline further.
Polymarket traders now assign a 77% chance that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff deal by Nov. 10, while the odds that Trump’s promised 100% tariffs on China will take effect have fallen to 16%.
In its note, QCP maintains that Trump will once again opt for a symbolic deal rather than confrontation, making the upcoming meeting with Xi “pragmatic,” a view reinforced by his softer comments over the weekend that “the United States wants to help China, not hurt it.”
The relative calm in both cryptocurrencies and stocks reflects this narrative of détente.
Last week’s $20 billion sell-off and mispricing of Binance collateral have largely run their course, setting a clean slate for macro traders heading into the CPI event. Whether that calm holds will depend on whether Friday’s inflation data keeps the “soft landing” story alive or revives the volatility that markets have only just begun to shake off.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, consolidating after a recent rally, with sellers limiting the potential for an immediate breakout, while Standard Chartered analysts say a drop below $100,000 could be a “last chance to buy” before the next leg higher.
ETH: Ethereum is trading around $3,800 with volume up 33% as traders accumulate ahead of US inflation data, although a $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700 million in profit taking and long liquidations, leaving analysts torn between a potential breakout towards $5,000 or a drop towards $2,850 if $3,470 support fails.
Gold: Gold continues to experience a record sell-off with futures falling 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce after Tuesday’s 5.7% drop as investors took profits from its record run, although analysts said heavy central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts should keep bullion supported.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.5%, after reports that the Trump administration could restrict exports to China reignited trade tensions between the United States and China.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Cryptocurrencies are finally growing, says VC giant Andreessen Horowitz (Decrypt)
- Cryptocurrencies lost 1,000 jobs to AI since the launch of ChatGPT, but regained them from other sectors, according to a report from a16z (Fortune)
- Tensions rise as Senate Democrats and cryptocurrency executives meet over sweeping digital assets bill (The Block)
