Bitcoin (BTC) The lack of short -term bullish drivers and the worsening of the technical perspective has led an analyst to plan offers at lower price levels to capitalize on a possible market.
“I will leave offers at $ 94,0000 and $ 82,000 in case of a Freakout,” said Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, in a market update.
“If my point of view on the reaction, the fiscal domain and the Fed-As-Pupp show are right, Bitcoin will eventually benefit. But today it is a trade like a risky asset, not a value store. And there is no coherent short-term bullish narrative.”
Donnelly explained that madness around the bonds of digital assets (Dats)Or the corporate adoption of BTC as a treasure asset, it is fading, and the seasonal effects related to the reduction event of half of Bitcoin are becoming bassists.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s upward markets generally reach a maximum of 16 to 18 months after an event in half, followed by a one -year -old bear market. Since the last half occurred in April 2024, this pattern suggests that current Toro’s career could approach its end, giving way to a prolonged period of bears.
However, some observers have argued that the institutionalization of BTC through ETF has altered the market, and the middle reduction cycles are no longer valid, since miners are now representing less than 5% of the market volume.
Speaking of technical perspectives, Donnelly pointed out Bitcoin’s double Top, an bearish investment pattern.
“I suppose that Bitcoin’s weekend landfill after Jackson Hole’s speech” Dovish “by Powell was a red flag and now we have a double top in BTC with the first in the week of the crypt in the White House and the second one at the ETHMINE party organized by Bitmine,” he said.
Last week, Bitcoin fell below $ 111,982, confirming a double breakdown and pointing to a change of a bassist bullish trend.
Since then, prices have recovered at that level, which has now become resistance, a classic breakdown and repeat pattern. Markets often review the critical breakdown points to measure the strength of the seller before potentially promoting greater decreases.
In other words, BTC is now at a turning point. A clean rest above that level would weaken the bearish case. On the other hand, a lower turn would reinforce the bearish pattern, opening the door for a deeper slide.
The non -agricultural payroll report on Friday could be decisive. A stronger reading than expected can undermine bets in federal reserve rates, which can boost lower bitcoin. In anticipation of a bassist result, some merchants have been buying BTC sales options undervalued in the CME.
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