BTC faces strong selling pressure despite seasonal bullish expectations


Bitcoin continues to trade slowly around the $110,000 level and remains under pressure compared to gold.

Onchain data from Glassnode shows that selling pressure from long-term (LTH) holders is intensifying. Glassnode defines LTHs as investors who have held bitcoins for 155 days or more.

Currently, LTHs collectively hold approximately 14.5 million BTC, but continue to reduce their positions. In the last few days alone, this cohort has sold around 100,000 BTC. Since the peak of their holdings, they have dumped over 300,000 BTC since the end of June.

LTH Supply (Glassnode)

LTH Supply (Glassnode)

With almost all LTHs currently making profits, the data suggests that there has been significant profit-taking since the beginning of October.

There are several theories as to why this sale occurs. The fourth quarter has historically been a seasonally strong period for bitcoin, and approximately 18 months after a halving event is generally considered the most bullish phase of the cycle. However, since the current cycle does not follow this historical pattern, some investors may be exiting their positions out of concern that the four-year cycle theory that has been applied in previous cycles may not hold true this time.

Glassnode data also highlights that whales are the main distributors of bitcoins today. According to the cohort accumulation trend score, entities holding more than 10,000 BTC have a large distribution. Cohorts holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have a neutral stance with a score of 0.5, while all cohorts holding less than 1,000 BTC are net accumulators. Whales have been consistently net sellers since August.

Accumulation by cohort (Glassnode)

Accumulation by cohort (Glassnode)



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