An impulse indicator that the price increase after the Bitcoin (BTC) elections presaged that it has become negative, coinciding with the tariff rhetoric of President Donald Trump, which threatens to destabilize the markets. Even so, there is still no need to panic.
That indicator is the histogram of divergence of the convergence of the mobile average (MACD), which is used to measure resistance and trend changes. It is calculated by subtracting the average price level of Bitcoin during the last 26 periods (weeks in this case) of the average in the last 12 weeks.
The signal line is calculated as an average of nine weeks of the MACD and the difference between the MACD lines and the signal is drawn as a histogram.
The MACD in the Bitcoin weekly table has crossed below zero, which is said to represent a bearish change in the impulse. Meanwhile, zero crossovers indicate an upward trend. The indicator became positive in mid -October, strengthening the case of a rally at $ 100,000, as Coindesk reported at that time.
So, although Bearish MacD’s last signal could alarm bulls, especially retail buyers who trust the technical analysis tools, the current price action of BTC does not validate the negative reading in the indicator.
Currently, BTC remains confined in the largest range of $ 90K to $ 100K, with recent movements hardening a range of between $ 95k and $ 100K. Without management, the importance of MACD bearish crossover decreases.
It is essential to remember that the indicators are derived from the price action, not vice versa. MACD signals must be confirmed by Price Action. The upward signal of the indicator in mid -October was backed by prices that separated from a several months negotiation range.
Tariff threat and increasing inflation expectations
Although the MACD is not yet a cause for concern, several macro factors justify attention since possible sources of volatility down that could see the cryptocurrency test the long -standing support about $ 90,000. A break that would validate fresh negative reading in the MACD, confirming a bearish change in the impulse.
In the upper part of the list is Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which, if it translates into action, could lead to higher bonds and lower risk assets.
Trump said on Monday, he would announce 25% tariffs over all imports of steel and aluminum, which would come in addition to additional metal tariffs, which will be released later this week. Trump has hinted plans to apply higher rates in a wide range of goods imported from the European Union at the end of this month, according to UBS.
The consumer feelings survey at the University of Michigan published on Friday showed that the tariff threat is already negatively affecting consumer expectations on price pressures in the economy. Inflation expectations for next year increased to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in January, the highest reading since November 2023.
That could prevent the Fed from being reduced rapidly. “The 2 -year inflation swaps have begun to set the price of a risk premium around tariffs. With 2.72%, they have reached new maximum It is fine and the idea is that even if inflation falls to 2%, the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut, “said Alfonso Peccatiello, author of Macro Compass, in X.
The US CPI data. UU., Or the consumer price index report for January, will be published on February 12.
