Bitcoin is exhibiting textbook bottom-forming characteristics across multiple indicators, trading at levels that historically precede significant recoveries, according to onchain analyst James Check. However, time, not price, is likely to be the biggest test for bitcoin bulls.
“All mean reversion models, from technical to on-chain, trade within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (of which December 2018 and June 2022 were examples),” Check wrote Tuesday morning as bitcoin plummeted through $63,000, apparently on its way to testing the Feb. 5 panic low of $60,000.
“Either Bitcoin is dead, it will no longer mean to reverse and all its models are broken,” Check continued. “Or you should ignore the bears… and quietly [be] dollar cost average [and] stack sats from now on.”
Check, who correctly urged caution in 2025 when investing in any of the BTC treasury companies formed to try to replicate the success of Michael Saylor’s strategy, acknowledged today that it is possible or even likely that the price of bitcoin will fall further from here. However, time will be the most important factor. He recalled the brutal bear market of 2022. People remember the low price of around $15,600 in December of that year, but bitcoin essentially bottomed six months earlier at around $17,600. The rest was just waiting, and then one last surge of liquidity (around the FTX collapse).
“This is literally what a risk-free setup for bitcoin looks like,” Check concluded. “If you are not actively accumulating bitcoins at this stage, when?”
