bitcoin It held onto its gains on Monday after an initial rise above $70,000, but the fate of the rally now depends on what comes next between the United States and Iran.
The move followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, citing “productive” diplomatic talks.
Iranian officials denied the existence of talks, but markets largely ignored it, and risk assets held firm during the session.
Bitcoin hovered just below $71,000 later in the session, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours. Altcoins fared better, with ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and each earning about 5%.
Cryptocurrency-linked stocks also rallied, led by bitcoin miners, which are increasingly trading in line with AI infrastructure plays. Hut 8 (HUT) rose more than 11%, while Bitfarms (BITF), Cipher Mining (CIFR), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and TeraWulf (WULF) advanced between 6% and 7%.
Traditional markets joined the move higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing up about 1.2%.
While the temporary pause has eased pressure on energy markets, traders should treat the rally in risk assets with caution.
“The macroeconomic ceiling has shifted,” said Jasper de Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute. “The space available will depend on the next five days.”
If oil stabilizes and shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, he said, inflation concerns could ease, allowing expectations of rate cuts to return and removing a key hurdle for cryptocurrencies.
In that scenario, bitcoin could make another run into the $74,000 to $76,000 range, the level that has limited rallies in recent weeks, according to de Maere.
A breakdown in talks or a new disruption to power supplies would have the opposite impact, he said. It would likely send oil back up, reinforcing inflation risks and sending markets back into a risk-off mode that could send bitcoin back around $60,000.
