The calm that has returned to the Bitcoin market (BTC) can be short -lived, which potentially prepares the stage for a storm that could trigger significant price volatility, according to the ideas of the Derived decentralized Crypto Options Platform.
Since March 12, BTC has been resolved in the range of $ 80k- $ 85K in a typically observed consolidation after a remarkable directional movement. The prices collapsed from $ 100K to less than $ 80K in previous weeks due to several factors, including the tariffs of President Donald Trump and the disappointment due to the lack of new purchases in the strategic BTC reserve of the United States.
With the last consolidation, the key volatility metrics have decreased, to a point of monthly minimums. Volatility, however, is the average reversal, which means that the low volatility regime could soon pave the path for price turbulence, according to derive.
“The weekly volatility in BTC money (ATM) has submerged below 50% to 49%, approaching the monthly minimums of 45%. The volatility made has also fallen from 91% at the beginning of the month to 54% today,” Nick Forster, founder of Derive, wrote in a recent note shared with Coindesk.
It is important to remember that volatility is the agnostic price, which means that the expected increase in volatility does not indicate the direction of price movement in Bitcoin.
“Volatility is a medium reversal, so we can expect you to increase soon, probably the levels seen in February (60-70%),” Forster added.
Whether prices increase or fall, volatility can increase, suggesting that significant price changes could occur in any direction.
According to derive, several factors could trigger volatility, including “a high fire (or lack of it) in Ukraine, or significant changes in cryptographic regulatory policy under the Trump administration.”
Derive is the world chain chain chain option protocol with a total blocked value of almost $ 100 million. The protocol has registered a cumulative negotiation volume of $ 15 billion to date.
The Federal Reserve rate on Wednesday could also move the markets.
It is likely that the Central Bank keeps the rates without changes, and the merchants set a price of two or three rates cuts at the end of this year. But a misleading surprise could recharge the bulls engines for a higher acute movement.
However, the possible cuts of the Fed rate could be limited, according to Blackrock.
“The markets have valued in approximately two to three cuts of basic points rates this year, compared to expectations for only one earlier this year. We believe that this reflects the fears of recession of the US A weekly note.
The rise of expected volatility could occur at the disadvantage if capital markets continue to fall, accelerate the decrease in cryptography prices.
