Wall Street investment bank Citigroup lowered its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether (ETH), citing slower legislative momentum in the US, weaker network activity and reduced expectations for ETF inflows.
Citi now forecasts that bitcoin will reach $112,000 and ether $3,175 over the next year, well below previous forecasts of $143,000 and $4,304.
The revised targets still suggest a substantial increase. Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at the time of this publication. Ether was at $2,330.
The bank said inflows remain the main bullish factor, although it reduced its 12-month demand assumptions, even as recent demand for ETFs has increased modestly despite geopolitical uncertainty.
“ETF lawsuit where we reduce the assumption to $10 billion and $2.5 billion (ETH) remains the biggest positive factor,” analyst Alex Saunders said in Monday’s report.
Crypto markets have struggled to regain momentum after bitcoin hit record highs in October, with prices falling amid weak risk appetite and fading enthusiasm following the halving. BTC has traded below key technical levels, while ether has lagged further, affected by soft on-chain activity. Despite the muted price development, ETF inflows have remained resilient, helping to stabilize the market even as broader macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside.
According to Saunders, the prospects largely depend on US regulation. The analyst said the window to pass digital asset legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds falling to around 60%. While broader global policy remains favorable, he argued that US legislation would be a stronger catalyst for institutional flows than incremental regulation.
The CLARITY Act, a sweeping US crypto market structure bill, passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate as lawmakers negotiate competing proposals, leaving its path forward uncertain.
The legislation is considered critical because it would establish clear rules for how digital assets are classified and which agencies oversee them, resolving a long-running turf battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (CFTC) which has created legal ambiguity for investors and companies.
By defining categories of tokens and establishing registration frameworks for exchanges, the bill aims to reduce regulatory risk and provide the certainty that many institutional investors need before allocating more capital to crypto markets.
The analyst also noted weakening momentum in the cryptocurrency market since bitcoin’s October peak, citing futures selloffs, positioning fatigue and prices below key technical levels. Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate in trading, with around $70,000 considered an important psychological level tied to pre-election prices.
Within the bank’s framework, the bullish stance depends on greater adoption by end investors, particularly through ETFs, with a target of $165,000 for bitcoin and $4,488 for ether. The bearish case reflects recessionary macro conditions, with targets of $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s prospects are more uncertain, according to the report, given its sensitivity to on-chain activity, which has been weak recently. Still, there is potential benefit from stablecoin growth, tokenization trends, and potential regulatory focus on DeFi, which could boost usage and demand.
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