By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin is recovering along with the US dollar, a pattern that has emerged several times since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election.
The cryptocurrency has gained more than 10% since war broke out in the Middle East over the weekend. Prices nearly tested the $74,000 mark at one point yesterday and are up more than 2% in the last 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 index and major tokens including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL) are up 2% or more.
For bulls, the rally is notable not only for its magnitude but also for the context: It is unfolding amid risk aversion in global stocks and alongside a strengthening dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) has gained more than 1% this week and hit a high of 99.68 on Wednesday, a level last seen in November.
That combination may baffle many market observers. A stronger dollar typically weighs on dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin, and the two have historically tended to move in opposite directions.
However, that inverse correlation has been repeatedly questioned since Trump returned to the White House promising pro-cryptocurrency policies. Both BTC and DXY rose before and after the election, both fell between March and April 2025. Now they are both recovering again.
Meanwhile, US demand for BTC appears to be strengthening, a constructive sign for the market. The Coinbase Premium index, which measures the spread between prices on the Nasdaq-listed exchange and offshore giant Binance, rose today to 0.0227%, the highest since December, according to data source Coinglass. A premium on Coinbase is usually a sign of increased demand from US investors.
Attention is now focused on whether the cryptocurrency can penetrate the decisive historical zone around $74,000. A decisive breakout would likely bolster investor confidence and attract more buyers to the market.
Some traders are also keeping an eye on the US macroeconomy.
“The February US employment report is scheduled for March 6, followed by the CPI on March 11 and the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian stock exchange Giottus.com, said in an email. “These are all potential volatility catalysts for global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.”
Other macroeconomic observers remain cautious, noting that the current calm linked to the United States’ promise to escort and secure oil tankers may prove fragile.
“All it will take is one Iranian rocket for this fragile balance to fall into severe discontinuity. The threat of an Iranian rocket hitting trash remains real and this is not something that can be remedied in the short term,” economist Robin Brooks noted in a blog post. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 5, 8:30 am: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 28 (Previous 212K)
- March 5, 8:30 am: US nonfarm productivity pre-quarterly for Q4 (previous 4.9%)
- March 5, 4:30 pm: US Federal Reserve balance sheet update for the period ending March 4
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 5: Rumble (RUM), post-market, -$0.10
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Uniswap DAO is voting on two linked proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight L2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 5.
- Gnosis DAO is voting to provide a grant to fund the ongoing support, infrastructure and maintenance of the Revoke.cash security platform. Voting ends March 5.
- Unlock
- March 5: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 2.24% of its circulating supply worth $18.35 million.
- Token releases
- March 5: WhiteBit Token (WBT) lists on Kraken.
- March 5: Limitless (LMTS) will appear on Coinbase.
- March 5: Opinion (OPN) will be listed on Binance, BitMart, BingX, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.13% as of 4 pm ET Wednesday to $72,849.18 (24 hours: +2.42%)
- ETH is down 1.08% to $2,135.84 (24 hours: +3.81%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.25% to 2,072.03 (24 hours: +2.75%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 6 Basis Points to 2.91%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0026% (2.8744% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.12% at 98.99
- Gold futures rise 1.06% to $5,174.30
- Silver futures rise 2.28% to $84.51
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.90% at 55,278.06
- Hang Seng closed up 0.28% at 25,321.34
- The FTSE 100 rises 0.30% to 10,598.92
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.13% to 5,878.37
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.49% at 48,739.41
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.78% at 6,869.50
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.29% at 22,807.48
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 33,942.90
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.26% at 3,619.17
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 3 basis points to 4.08%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,870.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 25,113.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.18% to 48,710.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.78% (0.9%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02938 (0.38%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 999 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $32.09
- Total fees: 3.03 BTC / $215,909
- CME Futures Open Interest: 111,485 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.1 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.88%
Technical analysis
- Coinglass chart shows daily open interest in zcash (ZEC) futures.
- Open interest refers to the number of active futures contracts at any given time.
- The figure has risen to almost 1.50 million ZEC, breaking above a bearish trend line.
- The breakout indicates renewed interest in ZEC futures and increased volatility ahead.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $208.93 (+14.57%), +0.10% to $209.14 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.34 (+17.70%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.29 (+7.27%), –0.22% to $9.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.53 (+8.11%), +0.24% at $16.57
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.84 (+3.53%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.66 (+7.79%), –0.75% to $10.58
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $12.16 (+12.28%), unchanged from the previous market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.20 (+8.76%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.27 (+5.66%), unchanged from the previous market
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.86 (+11.29%), –0.49% at $36.68
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $146.44 (+10.37%), –0.30% to $146.00
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $8.13 (+11.98%), –1.60% to $8.00
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.08 (+37.58%), +1.85% at $1.10
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.22 (+6.09%)
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.62 (+15.49%), +0.73% at $9.69
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $461.9 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $169.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.83 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
