This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
bitcoin It continues to trade within a countertrend ascending channel on the hourly chart that sits within a broader descending trend, leaving the price action finely balanced.
A clear break above $96,500 would be technically bullish, as this level marks the confluence of the channel top and the broader downtrend line, and would argue for a revival of the medium-term uptrend. The weekly chart supports this scenario, with the repeated defense of the 100-week simple moving average indicating bearish exhaustion and increasing risk of a bullish reversal.
However, the structure also leaves room for fresh weakness if buyers fail to force confirmation.
A downward break of the hourly countertrend channel would validate the downtrend line and open the way for another test of the $80,000 area, where the market previously found support.
ETH
Ether’s technical structure mirrors that of BTC, trading within a countertrend ascending channel on the hourly chart amid a broader downtrend. A decisive break above $3,200, the channel resistance, would confirm a bullish revival, exposing $3,620, the lower peak resistance of November 10.
Downside risks remain if sellers invalidate the countertrend channel. A break below would reinforce the broader downtrend, opening recent lows near $2,630 as initial support before a deeper correction.
Overall, $3200 remains the fundamental level to watch.
XRP
Payments-focused XRP is once again testing the critical $2 support line, which has repeatedly signaled seller exhaustion this year via weekly long-tail candles. The momentum appears bearish, as evidenced by the sharp drop to the 5-week and 10-week SMAs confirming the bearish momentum.
A break below this level risks causing holders to capitulate, exposing $1.63, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 rally, as the next major support.
Conversely, consecutive daily closes above $2.30 would invalidate the pattern of bearish lower highs and signal a bullish revival. $2 remains the key pivot in this symmetrical setup.
SUN
solarium continues to show range-bound indecision, trading within a sideways channel defined by upper resistance at $145 and lower support at $120, with current levels near $134.
The lack of directional momentum persists, leaving the next significant move contingent on a clear breakout of this consolidation range. Bullish resolution of the range would create room for a move to $160 and higher through a measured move analysis. A break lower would extend the broader downtrend.
