Crypto’s year-end setup is still positive, according to Coinbase Institutional’s Q4 2025 “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” report, produced in collaboration with Glassnode.
The team characterizes its stance as cautious but skewed upward after the October 10 shakeup. Coinbase links the decline to heavy leverage running into thin order books, then worsening as some exchanges’ automatic deleveraging limited market makers’ short positions and dried up liquidity. The firm says prices stabilized over the weekend, but the stock remained shaky as macroeconomic jitters resurfaced.
Liquidity and macroeconomics are at the center of Coinbase’s outlook.
The firm’s M2 Global Money Supply Index, which Coinbase says has historically tracked bitcoin and tends to have a lead of about 110 days, began the quarter with a supportive stance, although the report warns that conditions could tighten later in the fourth quarter. Coinbase also anticipates two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of the year, a move it believes could take some cash out of money market funds and back into risk.
Policies and market analysis complete what Coinbase calls a constructive setup.
The report highlights stablecoin supply and monthly volumes at or near record levels – evidence, according to Coinbase, that more payments and transfers are moving up the chain. It also notes that the US spot ETF infrastructure for bitcoin and ether continues to deepen, improving access for traditional allocators and strengthening market depth. These developments, Coinbase maintains, have less to do with headlines and more to do with the rails that keep usage and liquidity flowing through volatility.
In terms of positioning, Coinbase favors bitcoin, citing its role as “digital gold” amid lingering questions about fiscal and monetary discipline. The report says that ether also looks constructive: scaling progress has driven more activity to layer 2 networks while fees have fallen and sentiment has improved since the beginning of the year. An investor survey included in the report shows that most institutions are bullish on BTC over the next three to six months, even as many pointed to the macro backdrop as the main risk.
Coinbase dedicates space to digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, describing them as significant and relatively stable buyers of BTC and ETH. The company says that cohort now holds a notable share of the circulating supply and remains a major source of demand. At the same time, Coinbase acknowledges open questions about long-term business models, particularly after the group’s recent stock market weakness.
The report does not rule out short-term dangers. Coinbase points to the lack of US data related to the government shutdown, the potential for liquidity to fade in November, and uncertainty around DATs as reasons to keep size and time horizons disciplined.
Still, Coinbase Institutional’s bottom line is stable: Liquidity conditions, policy progress, and on-chain usage expansion (led by maturing stablecoins and ETF pipelines) remain favorable through the end of the year, and Bitcoin is best positioned to lead if those supports hold.
