Yes, you read the title correctly. The number of bullish bitcoins Bets, so-called BTC/USD long positions, on the OG Bitfinex exchange have reached multi-month highs.
But bulls, keep your applause, as this metric has become a textbook “contrarian indicator” over the years, with rallies characterizing downward trends in the price of bitcoin.
Highest since 2023
The number of BTC/USD long positions has risen to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data source CoinDesk.
Increasing bullish bets usually indicate increasing bullish pressure – a positive reading. But historically, the market has done exactly the opposite, falling just as Mother Nature turns sunny forecasts into storms.
For example, the number of BTC/USD long positions increased by 30% in the last quarter of 2025, as the BTC spot price plummeted by 23% to $87,550. Similar patterns have been observed in recent years, as seen below.
The BTC price bottoms out when Bitfinex long positions peak, and rises as they decline. Price peaks (like in October) are reached when longs bottom, then prices decline as longs rise.
Analysts have previously explained this conundrum by saying that the crowd usually has no idea, so bet against them.
Therefore, the latest rally in long positions suggests that bitcoin’s choppy price action between $65,000 and $75,000 could soon end with a sell-off, deepening the bearish trend that began above $100,000 last year. It goes without saying that past results are no guarantee of future results.
That said, other factors, such as reports that the United States is planning to deploy troops to the ongoing war in Iran, the oil price shock, and fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike, also favor the bearish argument.
At the time of this publication, bitcoin was trading around $66,400, according to data from CoinDesk.
