A photograph provided by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him addressing a meeting with local champions and medalists of sports and world science prizes in Tehran on October 20, 2025. PHOTO: AFP
ISLAMABAD:
When Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir met US President Donald Trump at the White House in June last year, the situation in Iran was still tantalizingly precarious.
There were still murmurs that Israel, backed by the United States, would push for regime change in Iran. But then, within days of the quarterback’s meeting with Trump, the situation calmed down after Iran carried out largely symbolic airstrikes against the US military base in Qatar.
The Iranian government survived. If sources and circumstantial evidence are to be believed, it was the Pakistan army chief’s advice to Trump that led the US not to pull the trigger.
Today, as protests roil Iran again and Trump issues new warnings of military action, Islamabad’s position remains unchanged. Pakistan does not want regime change in Iran because the costs would be catastrophic, according to some experts and officials.
Iran is not a distant concern for Pakistan: it is a 900-kilometer neighbor that shares a sensitive border with Balochistan, the country’s most fragile province. Any unrest in Iran immediately threatens cross-border militancy, arms trafficking, refugee flows, and economic disruption.
“Any change in Iran, whether as a result of internal developments or external intervention, will have a direct impact on Pakistan,” said Asif Durrani, who served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran.
“Pakistan has played a role in the past in helping to reduce tensions between Iran and the West and it must be remembered that Pakistan’s diplomatic mission in Washington also looks after Iran’s interests,” he added, referring to Islamabad’s possible role in defusing the crisis.
This underlines Islamabad’s dual role: managing its own security while subtly advising world powers on the consequences of aggressive action against Tehran.
One of Pakistan’s immediate concerns is the impact on Balochistan. The Iranian province of Sistan-Balochistan shares ethnic, tribal and linguistic ties with the Baloch areas of Pakistan.
State instability across the border would energize militant networks, allowing them to exploit safe havens and expand cross-border operations. Security analysts note that Pakistan’s previous counterterrorism gains in Balochistan could quickly unravel if Iran descends into chaos.
Johar Saleem, former foreign secretary, said that when there was a conflict between Iran and Israel last time, and at that time Pakistan had very categorically supported the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iran.
“But I was one of the few commentators in Pakistan who felt that the military conflict had actually weakened Iran. So the situation we see now is partly because Iran is facing a huge crisis of political instability.”
Johar emphasized that an external intervention now, whether economic, cyber or military, would exacerbate the situation, further destabilizing a country already weakened by internal and external pressures.
Pakistan already hosts millions of Afghan refugees. A collapse or military intervention in Iran could trigger another massive influx of people, overwhelming border management, urban centers and social services.
The economic cost alone would be significant, and would come at a time when Pakistan is under IMF programs and facing domestic fiscal constraints.
A forced regime change in Tehran would reverberate far beyond Pakistan. It could harden divisions across the Middle East, spark proxy conflicts and draw in regional powers such as China, Russia and Türkiye.
For Pakistan, which relies heavily on Gulf stability for energy, trade and remittances, the consequences could be serious.
“In situations like these, it is always dialogue and friendly solutions that not only people in the country want, but also people outside the country, especially those who want the best from Iran. And Pakistanis are big supporters of Iran,” Johar said.
This underlines that Pakistan’s approach is rooted in realism: it seeks to manage regional dynamics without being drawn into risky external adventures.
“In addition to economic sanctions, the Americans talk about other options: military attacks, for example, or cyberattacks.
“Technologically speaking, there is a wide range of possibilities, so any type of intervention by the United States or the West would exacerbate the situation in Iran,” Johar warned. Pakistan’s position is clear: Iran must remain stable, sovereign and intact.
While Islamabad may not always agree with Tehran’s domestic policies, it recognizes that a collapse of the Iranian state would be a strategic disaster for Pakistan, spanning border security, refugee flows, regional power dynamics and long-term diplomatic credibility.
As protests continue in Tehran and Trump hints at intervention, Pakistan is likely to continue quietly advising restraint, emphasizing dialogue and pushing for solutions that preserve both Iran’s territorial integrity and regional stability.
