The new model uses AI forecasts to activate cash transfers before they overflow, helping families evacuate and protect their assets.
A citizen walks through the flooded area of Narowal, a city in Punjab, on August 27,2025. Photo: AFP
As this year’s floods devastated rural regions and displaced countless families, it is more important than ever to have systems in place that can anticipate and preemptively provide relief to affected populations.
The nonprofit GiveDirectly is testing a new approach to flood relief: sending money to homes before water levels rise. Advance cash assistance uses artificial intelligence to forecast where flooding will occur and releases payments when certain risk thresholds are reached.
GiveDirectly said it transferred $105 to thousands of households in Nigeria within 48 to 72 hours of predicted flood thresholds in June, allowing families to evacuate, fortify their homes and protect livestock ahead of flooding. The group also reported that “income more than doubled, food insecurity decreased by 90%, and most beneficiaries felt better prepared for future floods.”
Read: Record floods displace millions in Punjab
The model relies on Google’s Flood Hub, a forecasting platform that now covers more than 80 countries and offers up to seven days of flood predictions. By leveraging Google’s AI systems, aid agencies and governments can use it to receive alerts at the village level, and Pakistan is among the countries covered.
Humanitarian agencies argue that paying early is more dignified and more cost-effective than traditional aid that arrives after losses mount, and similar ideas have been tested in Bangladesh and other regions, with studies suggesting that early action can shorten recovery time and reduce humanitarian costs.
How Pakistan can implement a similar system
Pakistan has real-time river data through the Flood Forecasting Division of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD/FFD) and can use Google Flood Hub (and its AI systems) to monitor parameters such as predicted river discharge levels, flood probabilities, etc.
By identifying and registering vulnerable households, such as through the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), the government can set up digital wallets to get funds to people as quickly as possible. BISP has already partnered with JazzCash for fund disbursements, so this can be tailored for flood relief.
Furthermore, by connecting the PMDFFD flood center forecasts to the satellites of the Space Applications Center for Emergency and Disaster Response (SACRED) of the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), we can refine the data to achieve high accuracy and ensure precise targeting of settlements that are at risk.
By integrating “anticipatory action” into the Proactive Monsoon Guidelines of the National Disaster Management Authority and utilizing the National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy to By 2025-2030, we can plan for floods and care for our people before floods, clarifying how people at risk get payments and the conditions for getting these payments. There may also be a verification system to monitor errors and fraud built into the policy framework.
However, special attention should be paid to people who live in areas that do not receive constant mobile phone signals or those who are not digitally connected.
Testing a system in lower Indus Sindh and southern Punjab, Where flood risks are high, with the help of an independent partner, would be a good first step towards a system that can save and support many people.
