Bitcoin
The upper double perspectives above $ 100,000 justify caution, but a complete 2022 style clash seems unlikely unless an unexpected black swan arrives, according to the head of the Research of the Banking of Digital Assets, Sygnum, the investment investigation Katalin Tischhauser.
“The encryption market is strongly driven by feelings since the fundamental valuations are challenging; therefore, the technical analysis signals, such as the warranty warrant political and regulatory support, support for the institutional and institutional of the optimized institution.
Bitcoin has spent 50 days mainly quoting between $ 110,000 and $ 100,000, indicating an exhaustion of the upward trend near the maximums reached in January this year. That has led several observers, including veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt, to consider the possibility that the BTC BTC voltee trend with a double pattern.
The double top comprises two consecutive peaks at approximately the same price, about $ 110K in the case of BTC, with a trend line drawn through the low point between these peaks. The low point in the case of BTC is the fall of early April to $ 75,000. Analysts are concerned that a possible double top breakdown, which implies a recession of $ 110,000 and a fall below $ 75,000, could take an accident to around $ 27,000. Yes, you read it well. Such a shock would mean a slide of 75% of the peaks.
The technical patterns, such as the double top, often become self -fully prophecies: once merchants detect the pattern, their collective action reinforces the expected result. Therefore, it is natural that double top prospects above $ 100,000 cause some caution and price drop.
However, technicians alone cause a price shock of 75%. For example, the BTC block from $ 70,000 to $ 16,000 during the 12 months until November 2022 occurred, since the asset classes exposed to the Fed Rate Walk cycle, such as Crypto, where an excess of speculation had accumulated, preparing the scenario for the disappearance of the Blockchain terra and the FTX exchange. Both events caused a destruction of massive wealth.
Bull run by flow
However, the last rally is mainly driven by institutional flows instead of the history or claim that Defi is better than traditional finances or Ethereum is the New World computer, as Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg pointed out last year.
From its debut at Nasdaq in January 2024, the 11 Bitcoin exchange funds of 11 spot (ETF) They have registered net tickets of more than $ 48 billion, according to data tracked by Farside investors. Meanwhile, the adoption of BTC as a corporate treasure asset has accelerated the rhythm, which adds to the time of the bull. At the time of writing this article, 141 public companies had 841,693 BTC, according to Bitcintrease.net.
The nature driven by the flows of the last Toro race makes it more resistant than the previous bullies, according to Tischhauser.
“The institutions implement a rigorous due diligence and risk assessment before adding a new class of assets such as Bitcoin to the model portfolio. But when they do, the eventual assignment is in the long term. This trend of sticky institutional allocation just begins, and the resulting demand will continue to provide pricing for time,” Tischhauser told COINDESK.
Tischhauser explained that these investment vehicles are absorbing liquidity, skewing the demand supply dynamics in favor of a continuous upward trend.
“These investment vehicles are sucking market liquidity, which means that every time a new large ticket investor reaches the market with offers, this addresses less and less supply, and the bullish impact on prices becomes more pronounced,” Tischhauser said.
The half cycle can be dead
The double bassist double bumper shock scenario seems plausible for many observers, since we are in the year after the sheet, which has historically marked the peaks of the upward market, racing the way for one -year bass markets.
Half of half is a code programmed in the bitcoin block chain that reduces the rhythm of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last half occurred in April 2024 and reduced the BTC reward for block at 3,125 BTC of 6.25 BTC.
However, the half reduction cycle may not develop as expected, since sticky institutional adoption has a greater influence on the price than miners. In addition, BTC sold by miners, which were obtained regulatory discharge coins obtained to finance operating costs, now represents a small percentage of the average daily negotiation volume.
“The change in market leadership means that the four-year-old mid-reduction cycle may not be developed religiously as it did before. The majority of BTC holders were miners, and the BTC issued per year was a large percentage of Bitcoin’s pending offer. Therefore, the sales pressure of the miners imported a lot at the market price. Now, the BTC is 0.05-0.05-0.1% of the volume BTC average and summary in the supply and demand of this supply has a volume of daily supply.
