By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market is in the red again, with bitcoin showing signs of what Forex traders would call a “CHoCH” or character change. In this case, it is leaning lower.
Since October last year, bitcoin bulls have ruled the options market, piling up call options of $100,000 and up on Deribit, pushing those strikes to the top of the open interest leaderboard. Fast forward to today, and the change is evident.
The $95,000 put has open interest of $1.8 billion, just slightly less than the $1.85 billion locked in the most popular option, the $140,000 call. The $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000 call options also carry open interest of between $1.4 billion and $1.55 billion.
The change in character is a sign that the market’s attitude toward risk is evolving. It is not just a jargon, but a tool that traders use to detect possible trend changes. In an uptrend, it occurs when the price falls below a previous low, indicating that the bullish march could be losing steam.
That is precisely the case with BTC, whose spot price recently fell below $107,250, hitting a low since early September. The move invalidated the bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows. While the bulls attempted to rally today, they fell short, reinforcing the reversal.
The result? BTC price was trading near $105,000, down 1% in the last 24 hours. Major altcoins, such as ether , and BNB recorded significant losses and the CoinDesk 20 index fell more than 2%.
Indices linked to memecoins, computing and smart contract tokens (ex-ether) fell, representing broader market weakness. The DeFi Select index stood out with gains of 6%, largely due to its largest component, Uniswap’s UNI token, which rose 23%.
The UNI rally came after the protocol’s founder, Hayden Adams, proposed a plan to activate protocol fees, burn UNI tokens using those fees, and withdraw 100 million UNI from the treasury, shifting the model toward deflation.
In other key news, the US Treasury Department and the IRS announced new guidelines, opening the doors for crypto products traded on Wall Street to generate betting returns for investors.
In traditional markets, concerns are growing about the falling share price of business development companies like Blue Owl Capital (OWL), despite overall market strength. To some observers, this decline indicates difficulties in the riskiest, high-yield segment of private credit. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- November 11, 7 am: Brazil, October inflation. General rate Est. interannual 4.75%, est. monthly 0.16%.
- November 11, 8:15 am: ADP weekly employment change (previous 14.25K).
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Uniswap is voting on a proposal from GFX Labs to create a “Community Proposal Factory” (CPF), a subDAO designed to lower the governance barrier. Voting ends on November 11.
- Unlock
- November 11: to unlock 2.11% of its circulating supply worth $32.35 million.
- Token releases
- November 11: Adix (ADIX) will appear on Gate.
- November 11: KuCoin will discontinue its pre-spot product.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.59% as of 4 pm ET Monday to $104,994.61 (24 hours: -0.78%)
- ETH is up 0.4 to $3,555.25 (24 hours: -1.06%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.08% to 3,424.67 (24 hours: -1.92%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 4 Basis Points to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.00013% (-0.3132% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 99.58
- Gold futures rise 0.58% to $4,146.00
- Silver futures rise 0.88% to $50.76
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.14% at 50,842.93
- Hang Seng closed up 0.18% at 26,696.41
- The FTSE rises 0.84% to 9,868.88
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.5% to 5,692.52
- DJIA closed Monday up 0.81% at 47,368.63
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.54% at 6,832.43
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.27% at 23,527.17
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.35% at 30,316.63
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.73% at 3,107.50
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 2.9 basis points to 4.122%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.19% at 6,843.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.34% at 25,626.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is unchanged at 47,449.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 60.02% (0.14%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03398 (0.96%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,054 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $42.79
- Total fees: 3.85 BTC / $408,527
- CME Futures Open Interest: 137,570 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 25 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 7.04%
Technical analysis
- The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio remains stuck in a descending channel, implying poor ether performance.
- Traders should be on the lookout for a possible breakout as such a move would mean further bias for ether and the broader altcoin market.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $317.93 (+2.84%), -1.11% to $314.40 in the previous market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $104.1 (+0.93%), -0.85% at $103.22
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.79 (+0.73%), -1.23% to $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $46.59 (+3.35%), -0.32% to $46.44
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.58 (-1.83%), -0.58% at $15.49
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.32 (+1.82%), -0.81% at $17.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.29 (-4.46%), -2.33% at $18.84
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.03 (-3.47%), -5.52% at $14.20
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $53.58 (-2.74%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $21.86 (+1.11%), -3.02% to $21.20
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $238.88 (-1.26%), -1.31% at $235.75
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.27 (+6.05%), +1.40% at $29.68
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.95 (-0.08%), unchanged from the previous market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.35 (+1.36%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.26 (+7.62%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $1.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $59.95 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.33 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $0 million
- Accumulated net flows: 13,880 million dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~6.56 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
- Bitcoin’s $588 Billion Range Masks Market Vulnerabilities: 10x Research (CoinDesk): 10x Research’s Markus Thielen says around 5.9 million coins changed hands at prices between $100,000 and $126,000, leaving many recent buyers exposed to a drop below $100,000 toward a liquidity gap of $93,000.
- Diversification, not hype, now drives digital asset investing: Sygnum (CoinDesk): A survey found that professional allocators prefer actively managed multicoin portfolios over single-token staking, and more than 70% would increase exposure to ETFs if staking support receives regulatory approval.
- Gold Extends Gains on U.S. Fiscal Worries, Rate Cut Expectations (Bloomberg): The precious metal held near $4,140 after a government restart deal prompted the release of long-delayed reports that are expected to show weaker growth and strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs.
- Prediction Markets Say US Government Shutdown Days Near End as Health Care Fight Looms (CoinDesk): At Polymarket, traders estimate the probability of the federal government reopening at 96% on November 12-15, in line with an expected House vote on the bipartisan Senate funding bill.
- Gemini Slumps After Missing Earnings Estimates in First Report Since IPO (CoinDesk) – Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) reported a loss of $6.67 per share in the third quarter, even as revenue doubled to $50.6 million, with heavy marketing and IPO costs weighing on profits.
