Coinbase (Coin) is aimed at its first quarter profit report on unstable land, with four Wall Street analysts who expect a failure, since it is likely that retail commercial calm press the most profitable commercial lines of cryptography exchange.
The company is scheduled to inform the results of the first quarter on Thursday after the market. Analysts are projecting profits per share (EPS) falling to $ 1.93 of $ 2.26 in the fourth quarter and revenues decrease to $ 2.1 billion of $ 2.27 billion, according to FACTSET data.
In the first quarter of the winning year, EPS of $ 4.40 and income of $ 1.2 billion reported. The negotiation volume is expected to land around the $ 403.8 billion brand compared to $ 439 billion in the fourth quarter.
JP Morgan reduced its EPS estimate to $ 1.59, citing a 10% drop in the coinbase negotiation volume and a 17% drop in the total limit of the cryptographic market during the quarter. Adjusted by losses of cryptographic assets, come EPS to $ 2.39, backed in part for controlled expenses and constant subscription income.
Barclays and Compass Point see deeper problems. Barclays cut its income and Ebitda forecasts, saying that the market has cooled sharply since January despite the stable growth. It is set in retail volumes to $ 69 billion, significantly below the average estimate of the street of $ 79.8 billion.
Compass Point, even more bearish, degraded the action to sell, projecting income from transactions of $ 1.24 billion, 7% below the consensus. He argues that Coinbase is losing retail participation due to decentralized exchanges (DEX) and warns of additional pain in the second quarter.
The popular Robinhood negotiation platform, last week, reported a 13% drop in revenues based on quarter quarter transactions as the markets cooled in the first three months of the year.
Stablecoins to the rescue?
The only area of optimism: Stablecoins.
The USDC coinbase income increased when Stablecoin market capitalization rose 42% during quarter, helping to reinforce subscription income. Barclays estimates $ 304 million in revenues related to the first quarter related to the USDC, and even skeptics in Compass Point recognize that this helped compensate for the fall in income due to participation due to the drop in Ether’s price.
Oppenheimer reduced its volume prognosis to $ 380 billion of $ 440 billion, but noted that Coinbase obtained a participation in the US spot market. UU. That is a positive signal, but that it may not matter if retail merchants are still sitting in their hands.
There is also a growing concern for competitive pressures in the longer term. Analysts pointed out that decentralized exchanges, especially those that operate with faster and faster block chains such as the base of Solana and Coinbase, are attracting retail users who seek to exchange a broader range of tokens. While the US market share of Coinbase has increased, its domain as a centralized and regulated exchange may not be enough to defend against this change.
Looking to the future, analysts warn that a short -term bouncing in trade can be slow to materialize, especially with retail merchants often hesitate to re -enter the market until they recover previous losses.
Coinbase shares have dropped 23% in the year in which they are quoted to $ 198.06, while Bitcoin has increased 3.8% since the beginning of the year to $ 97,023.
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