Wall Street analysts approved a mixed trial on Coinbase (COIN) after their first quarter and acquisition failure fault and an acquisition of $ 2.9 billion, with some short -term low -term forecasts and others that point to long -term strategic victories.
“The results of the first quarter came a bit below expectations and the future guide to [subscription and service] Income and April [transaction] The volumes were affected by the softest cryptographic markets and the mixtures/refunds, “Benjamin Buddish of Barclay, who maintained a” equal weight “rating, wrote in a report.” Otherwise, Coin saw good profits to share in the place and futures in Q1, and remains quite optimistic. “
Crypto Exchange, based in the United States, registered a larger 12% drop in the revenues of the trimester prior to $ 2.03 billion. Transactions income fell almost 19% to $ 1.3 billion, increasing red flags for the current period. Several analysts, including Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and JPMorgan, reduced their income projections of the second quarter and full -year, citing rates of rates that fall and a lighter institutional activity.
Retail trade remained stable, but institutional income was affected. JPMorgan marked the drop in the income of the institutional volume of 30% quarter to quarter and a decrease in institutional rates of 4.1 to 3.1 basic points, driven by incentives, reimbursements and a greater presence of high frequency merchants.
Even so, the acquisition of $ 2.9 billion detribit, the main global exchange of cryptographic derivatives, stood out as a bold commitment in the future of derivatives.
The agreement, which is expected to close at the end of the year, would receive praise from Bernstein (with a higher yield qualification), which described the valuation fair given the annual volume of $ 1.2 billion of detribit and $ 30 billion in open interest. Canaccord Genuity (Buy -Rating) said the acquisition provides strength to coinbase at the international level and prepares it for the eventual regulatory authorization of the United States. UU. Of cryptography options.
While commercial income collapses, the exchange is based on other growth levers. Subscription and services revenues grew 9% to $ 698 million, driven by the adoption of Stablecoin. The USDC balances in Coinbase increased almost 50% to $ 12.3 billion and balances maintained out of silver rose 39% to $ 42 billion. The average balances per user have tripled since June 2023, said Canaccord.
The company’s strategy also includes expanding its “coinbase” model: white label infrastructure for institutions that seek to enter the cryptographic market. Canaccord analysts say this could become a key income pillar, offering coverage against volatile shopping cycles.
“We have listened to many anecdotal data points at this time of Tradfi and Crypto-Native infrastructure players [versus] The construction strategy is the most likely scenario if this industry quickly evolves, “said Canaccord analysts.” Infrastructure type revenues such as a service would help soften commercial variability in quarterly numbers while consolidating further the positioning of the company’s cornerstone in the market. “
Oppenheimer (superior performance) and Barclays emphasized the macroeconomic risks, including uncertainty related to the rate and weak feeling that dragged the volumes in April and May in May. The hopes of regulatory clarity suffered a setback when the genius law, a Senate bill focused on Stablecoin, was blocked earlier this week. Despite that, Jpmorgan said management remained optimistic that progress in the legislation could be resumed before the August recess.
Coinbase still looks as a central one for the evolutionary cryptographic ecosystem. While the immediate perspective is clouded by low volumes and squeezed rates, many analysts say that the suite of expansion products of the exchange, the dominant position of the US market and the advantage of the first in the derivatives and the infrastructure established it in the long term.
As Canaccord said, Coinbase remains the “gold standard” for institutional and retail entry into digital assets, even if you have to navigate more short -term waters in the short term.
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