The 2024-25 economic survey, a key document prior to the budget, arrives at a time when Pakistan’s economy stabilizes, but remains fragile as the country sails through the reforms under an international monetary fund program (IMF) of $ 7 billion.
The Federal Budget of Pakistan for next fiscal year, as of July, will be published on Tuesday.
Here is a breakdown of the survey, as analyzed by the Arifib Limited brokerage firm:
- Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.68% in fiscal year 2015, showing signs of stabilization. GDP at current prices increased by 9.1% to RS114,692 billion, while per capita income increased by 9.7% to $ 1,824.
- Inflation decreased sharply, with an IPC main to 0.3% in April 2025 versus 17.3% last year. The average inflation during Jul -apr Fy25 was 4.7%, below 26.0% in the same period last year.
- The investment ratio to GDP improved to 13.8%, and the savings to GDP increased to 14.1%.
- Agriculture registered a modest growth of 0.56% in fiscal year 200, led by a 4.72% increase in livestock. However, the main crops decreased by 13.49% due to lower crop and climatic challenges.
- The industry expanded by 4.77%, backed by manufacturing and killing on a small scale. Large -scale manufacturing hired at 1.5% amid high costs and supply limitations.
- The services grew by 2.91% and retained the highest participation of GDP with 58.4%, backed by constant growth in retail, transport and government services.
- Pakistan registered a fiscal surplus of RS1,896 billion (1.7% of GDP) in 1qfy25, the first in 24 years. The FY25 fiscal deficit was reduced to 2.6% of GDP, while the primary surplus reached 3.0%.
- The policy rate was reduced to 11% in May 2025 from a peak of 22%, reflecting the fall in inflation and lower energy and food prices.
- Broad Money (M2) grew by 4.5% (PKR 1,604 billion) during the fiscal year of July to fiscal year 2015, below 7.2% growth the previous year.
- Private sector loans increased to RS767.6 billion during fiscal year 2015 of the Prosecutor’s Office, almost triple last year. Consumer financing also recovered strongly with a net increase of RS71.4 billion.
- The KSE-100 index won 50.2%, closing 117,807 points in March 2025, promoted by stable macroeconomy, corporate gains and IMF program progress.
- The current account registered a surplus of $ 1.9 billion during the fiscal year of July for fiscal year 2015, reversing the deficit of $ 1.3 billion last year. Currency reserves increased to $ 16.64 billion in May 2025.
- The remittances reached a historical monthly of $ 4.1 billion in March 2025 and grew 31% year -on -year at $ 31.2 billion during July -abril for fiscal year 2015.
- The public debt was at RS76.007 billion at the end of March 2025, with an internal debt at RS51,518 billion and external debt of R24,489 billion ($ 87 billion).
- The Government reduced the short -term debt by withdrawing RS2.4 billion in Treasury invoices and introduced new instruments such as a zero Pakistan investment bonus of 2 years and a 1 month Treasury bill.
- Strategic responsibility management operations included a repurchase of approximately RS1 billion in governmental values through repurchases and exchanges.
- Pakistan issued his first green sukuk worth RS30 billion, indicating progress towards green finances and sustainable investment.
- The Government obtained $ 1.4 billion under the IMF RSF to boost climatic resilience, institutionalizing a climate budget within its governance framework.
Perspective
- The real growth of GDP is expected to grow in potential in the fiscal year26, with a medium -term growth expected by 5.7%, backed by macroeconomic stability, reforms in favor of the growth and transformation strategy of Uraan Pakistan.
- Inflation is expected to remain anchored in 5-7% in the medium term, backed by global deflation, relieve energy prices and improve national food production.
- The current account deficit is projected to 0.8% sustainable of GDP in the medium term, helped by moderating energy imports, the growth of IT exports and the qualified work remittances of the Gulf States.
- The government’s approach in export diversification, regional commercial ties and the integration of the value chain is key to mitigating external shocks.
- Fiscal consolidation is underway through the extension of the tax base, the reforms of the energy sector and privatization, strengthening long -term fiscal health.
- The continuous support of IMF & RSF is improving investor confidence, facilitating public and private investment flows.
- Improve credit conditions and inflation of inflation a cautionly optimistic perspective for large -scale manufacturing recovery, depending on the macro continuous stability and structural reforms.
- Felill global trade, increased risk premiums and stricter immigration in host countries can affect exports, remittances and feeling of investment.
- Potential return migration and global labor market adjustment require stronger domestic labor absorption strategies.
