The CME has lost its place as the number one bitcoin exchange futures open interest (OI). Binance has now overtaken CME as the largest OI venue according to CoinGlass data, with Binance holding approximately 125,000 BTC ($11.2 billion in face value) to CME’s 123,000 BTC ($11 billion).
CME OI began the year with 175,000 BTC, but that level has fallen steadily as the profitability of base trading, in which traders buy bitcoin spot and simultaneously sell futures to capture the price premium between the two markets, has declined.
However, open interest on Binance has remained stable throughout the year as it is the exchange most likely to be favored by retail bettors betting on directional price movements.
Just over a year ago, CME OI hit a record high of 200,000 BTC as prices surged to $100,000 following President Trump’s election victory. At that time, the annualized base rate rose to around 15%.
Today, the CME base rate has compressed to approximately 5%, according to Velo data, reflecting diminishing returns for institutional base traders.
As spot and futures prices converge and market efficiency improves, arbitrage opportunities continue to shrink. CME had been the largest OI bitcoin futures exchange since November 2023, driven by institutional positioning ahead of the bitcoin spot ETF launch in January 2024. That lead, for the moment, appears to have faded.
