Asset prices reflected a buoyant mood on Wednesday, with Bitcoin Claiming $ 112,000 and European actions that rise outdoors, since analysts increasingly minimized the fears of stagflation and recession triggered by the horrible job data of the United States.
On Tuesday, the US Labor Statistics Office published a shocking update: the economy probably added 911,000 jobs less than what was originally reported in the 12 months until March 2025.
Think about it in this way: for more than a year, the bulls of the capital and cryptography market take risks, trusting that a healthy labor market would maintain the economy despite sticky inflation. That trust was shaken on Tuesday, and BTC quickly fell from $ 113,000 to $ 110,800.
Some market participants saw the review of BLS as evidence of an imminent recession. However, Michael English, main director and chief economist of Action Economics, said the data revealed very little about the economic cycle or the state of the economy.
“These reviews tell us more about the secular trajectory for the size of the United States workforce instead of where we are in the economic cycle, so it has not really increased our perceived risk of recession, even if it tells us that the trend growth for monthly payrols is likely that it is now a two-digit gain, instead of thousands, instead of a three-digit gain. 150,000-200,000 gains seen through Of most of the current expansion, “English said in an email.
He explained that the strong growth in the United States workforce after Covid, which exceeded the expectations of economists, was largely driven by an annual net immigration of approximately one million people. Now that has changed to a net emigration, estimated between one and two million.
“This change to a lower secular growth route for the workforce implies a slower growth in civil employment measured by household surveys and non -agricultural payrolls of establishment surveys in the future,” said English.
Financial markets seem to share that opinion, since European shares opened higher today, with BTC back over $ 112,000. Altcoins as ether (Eth)XRP and Dogecoin They have erased a significant potion of Tuesday’s fall. Meanwhile, the sun of Solana (SUN) It has increased to $ 222, the highest since February 1. Future S&P 500 quoted 0.3% higher, with European actions that record outdoor profits.
Standing fears are exaggerated
BLS reviews and imminent US IPC data, which are expected to show sticky inflation in about 3% (well above the 2% target of the Fed)They have restored the fears of stagflation, a situation characterized by high persistent inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant economic growth. Standing is widely seen as the worst result for risk assets, including bitcoin.
However, the fears that the economy is aimed at stagflation seems exaggerated, according to Marc Chandler, manager and main strategist of the market in Bannockburn Global Forex, who pointed out that the GDP of the United States is still above the “estimation of trends” of the Federal Reserve or a non -inflationary rhythm.
“I think the stagflation is still exaggerated. The Atlanta Fed tracker still has GDP well above the estimation of Fed trends, its non -inflationary rhythm.
Yes, inflation is a bit high, and it is likely to be more with the impression of August IPC on Thursday. However, Fed officials, such as Waller and Bowman, want to look through increases related to the rate, “Chandler told Coinridesk.
“It seems clear to me that the Fed will resume its flexion course next week,” he added.
Merchants have made a large amount of probabilities of 91% of FED cutting rates at 25 basic points to 4% on September 17, according to the Fedwatch tool of the CME. Some investment banks and operators anticipate a higher rate cut of 50 base points.
Grant on the US CPI.
These flexible expectations could even more strengthen if the price index of the American producer on Wednesday (PPI) and the consumer price index on Thursday (CPI) Unexpectedly, signal disinflation, which would help risk assets to continue offering in the short term.
That said, the increase in expectations could prepare the scenario for disappointment.
“I think that the impression of the CPI this week will give us more context … If the market expects the 50 Pbps to be reduced, but FOMC on September 17 only delivers 25 bp … we will get a massive sale,” said Greg Magadini, director of Amberdata derivatives, Coindesk.
