Ron Hammond, head of policy at cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, has a cautious outlook on the Clarity Act, putting its chances of passage this year at around 30%, even as momentum builds in Washington.
“There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, pointing to a legislative process that is moving forward, but unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to create rules on regulating the structure of the cryptocurrency market in the US, including codifying how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the US.
Hammond’s estimate broadly aligns with other market signals. A recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and employees puts the odds at 26%, while the Kalshi prediction market has remained just above even odds. The differential underscores how uncertain the bill’s trajectory remains.
Still, Hammond, who will speak at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference next month, sees incremental progress. Lawmakers are pushing to get the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as soon as April 20, though they cautioned that those timelines have been uncertain for months.
“These dates are moving,” he said. “There is light at the end of the tunnel, but there are obstacles along the way.”
Passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key unlock for the institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies because it would establish clear rules about which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custody and otherwise regulated in the US.
The current fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce that ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate cryptocurrencies more fully into traditional financial systems.
Obstacles
At the center of these obstacles: the banks.
According to Hammond, traditional financial institutions remain the biggest obstacle, particularly around the question of whether stablecoins should offer yield. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers has rejected opposition from the banks, but negotiations remain stalled.
“There have been attempts by various parties — Coinbase (COIN), the White House, the drafters of the bill — to find a solution,” Hammond said. “But at every turn the banks refuse to budge.”
The dispute has already derailed at least one engagement. Hammond said a “performance agreement” proposal that emerged about two weeks ago failed to satisfy either side, sending negotiators back to the drawing board. A new version is currently circulating, but expectations have been tempered.
“Even with broader macroeconomic pressures, it’s hard to see how banks will be happy here,” he said.
democrats
That resistance is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted funding from the crypto industry are now going through a difficult balancing act.
“If you are a Democrat who accepted crypto money, what is your position on this issue?” he said, also pointing out unresolved concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance.
New political headwinds could emerge in the coming months. Hammond pointed to ongoing scrutiny over former President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency-related businesses as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June.
“All of that becomes another headache,” he said.
Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward. Progress in the committee and continued negotiations could keep it alive until mid-year, when political incentives may change.
“There will be some progress soon,” he said.
American expansion
For Wintermute, the stakes are high. The company, one of the largest cryptocurrency market makers globally with approximately $10 million in daily trading volume, is expanding its presence in the US and growing its team in New York.
Hammond said that reflects a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market, particularly in what companies see as a more favorable regulatory environment. “Wintermute has expanded its operations since the election by establishing a US office in New York and we have been actively hiring,” he added.
That makes the result of the Law of Clarity even more momentous. While Hammond sees “light at the end of the tunnel,” he emphasized that its passage in 2026 will require progress that has so far proven elusive.
For now, 30% remains his number, and a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.
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