By Francisco Rodrigues (All Times et unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin It may be entering a decisive phase as macro and specific cryptographic forces converge.
With the closure of the United States government and traditional market indicators such as delayed employment reports, merchants are inclined in alternative assets, especially Bitcoin and Gold. BTC rose to $ 120,000 after joining 9% this week, while gold increased 2.9% to play $ 3,900.
The closure has presented more than 90% of the SEC staff and left the CFTC with a skeleton team. Reacting to the closing markets, it was recovered, since investors see the Federal Reserve that reduce interest rates in 25 BPs at the end of this month as a certainty almost on an unexpected fall in private payrolls in the United States and a delay in other key economic data.
“Merchants lack immediate catalysts, evidenced by a moderate commitment after the FOMC meeting, even when gold and actions have published strong profits. However, the broader trend remains greater as we move forward in a rate reduction cycle,” said Jake Ostrovskis, head of negotiation of OTC in Wintermute, he told Cointesk.
The lowest interest rates make risk assets such as cryptocurrencies more attractive, and that will come in a month where feeling is high given historical performance.
“October has historically been an upward month for Bitcoin, and the first signals suggest that this year it cannot be an exception.“Gadi Chait said Xapo Bank, in a statement sent by email.” Far from being an atypical speculative, Bitcoin continues to show its ability to challenge probabilities and affirm as a digital asset with power of permanence. “
The data in the chain support that. Bitcoin’s apparent demand has grown by approximately 62,000 BTC per month since July, according to Cryptoquant, largely driven by ETF and whales. For the context, ETF holdings increased by 71% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
In addition to that, the crypto-native market has continued to grow.
“During the past month, Defi’s participation in commercial activity has been significantly uploading, expanding both the market and our opportunity,” said Dydx Labs president Eddie Zhang, to Coindesk.
“A great promoter of this change is the renewed energy and the participation we are seeing in Asia. We believe that Defi is beginning to fulfill its long -standing promise, and the rhythm of the adoption of the market is accelerating in response.”
Looking towards the future, cryptographic markets anticipate other potential catalysts: ETF decisions for several alternatives, including Solana and XRP that could be delayed on closure, and Ethereum’s Fusaka update, which is slowly approaching. Stay alert!
What to see
For a more complete list of events this week, see COINDESK’S Cryptographic week ahead.
- Crypto
- October 3: Sol Treasury Brera Holdings begins to quote with New Ticker SLMT in Nasdaq, which reflects its imminent name change to Solmate.
- Macro
- October 3, 9 am: S&P Global Brazil Sept. PMI. Compound (Prev. 48.3), Services (Prev. 49.3).
- October 3, 9:30 am: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI. Compound (Prev. 48.4), Services (Prev. 48.6).
- October 3, 9:45 am: S&P Global Us Sept. PMI (final). Compound est. 53.6, services est. 53.9.
- October 3, 10 am: Sept. of the United States PMI est. 51.7.
- October 3, 1:40 PM: The Vice President of the Fed, Philip N. Jefferson, pronounces a speech on “Ee. UU. UU. And the Fed Monetary Policy Framework” in Philadelphia.
- Earnings (Estimates based on data data)
Token events
For a more complete list of events this week, see COINDESK’S Cryptographic week ahead.
- Government votes and calls
- You unlock
- October 3: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.26% of its circulating supply worth $ 17.56 million.
- Lanza Token
- October 3: Evaa protocol (Evaa) that will be listed in Binance Alpha, Mexc and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of events this week, see COINDESK’S Cryptographic week ahead.
Token talk
By Oliver Knight
- The encryption market increased on Friday with tokens that include ETH, Sol and XRP that increased more than 2%, while smaller alternatives such as Ethfi and Cake rose up to 25%.
- The relative force occurs when Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency in the world, reached $ 120,000 on Thursday, since it points to the August record greater than $ 124,000.
- Even so, unlike the previous incursions above $ 120,000, this movement has been quite silenced; with the remaining price in a narrow range instead of an increase in volatility.
- This is a good omen for the Altcoins, which generally work well when Bitcoin is consolidated, since it allows capital to turn from Bitcoin to more speculative bets.
- However, upward change has not been kind to a few selected chips, especially that an exhausting decrease of 43% was discussed due to a rapid relaxation of leverage.
- The Token XPL of Plasma, as reported in Thursday’s Daybook, continues to stutter in the midst of speculation about whether market manufacturers are cutting in the name of the founding team, an affirmation that XPL founders have denied.
Derivative positioning
- The BTC futures market is still strongly optimistic, with an open interest participation in historical maximums of more than $ 32 billion. The three -month -old annualized base is also high, which is approaching 8%.
- However, there is a remarkable divergence in financing rates. The detribit rate is exceptionally high by 25%, while other exchanges such as Bybit show more neutral funds, which suggests a potential concentration of aggressive long positions in specific areas.
- The BTC options market is showing a state of neutrality. The 24 -hour puts call volume is still slightly dominated by calls at 52.25%, but this is a decrease in previous days, indicating a potential moderation of the bullish conviction.
- At the same time, the 1 week 25 delta bias is now essentially flat at 0.33%, indicating a balanced implicit volatility for the positions and calls.
- This combination of metrics suggests a market that is being installed in a more balanced and hesitant phase after a stronger horny feeling period.
- Coinglase data show $ 380 million in 24-hour settlements, with a 35-65 division between lengths and shorts. Binance Liquidation Heatmap indicates $ 121,300 as a central liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price increase.
Market movements
- BTC fell 0.3% of 4 pm et on Thursday at $ 120,378.11 (24 hours: +1.44%)
- ETH has dropped 0.4% to $ 4,476.43 (24 hours: +2.05%)
- COINDESK 20 has dropped 0.55% to 4,297.29 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- The commitment rate composed of CESR Ether does not change to 2.87%
- The BTC financing rate is at 0.0023% (2,5185% annualized) in Kucon
- DXY has not changed to 97.76
- Gold futures rose 0.39% to $ 3,883.00
- Silver futures rose 1.87% to $ 47.24
- Nikkei 225 closed 1.85% to 45,769.50
- Hang Seng closed 0.54% to 27,140.92
- Ftse increases 0.63% to 9,486.91
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.16% to 5,654.70
- Djia closed 0.17% to 46,519.72 on Thursday
- S&P 500 closed 0.06% at 6,715.35
- The Nasdaq compound closed 0.39% to 22,844.05
- The S&P/TSX compound closed 0.18% to 30,160.59
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.42% to 2,893.79
- The 10 -year Treasury rate of US has dropped 0.2 PB to 4,088%
- E-mini s & p 500 Futures rose 0.27% to 6,785.25
- Futures E-Mini Nasdaq-100 have increased 0.28% to 25,180.75
- The industrial average index E-mini Dow Jones has increased 0.28% to 46,937.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC domain: 58.79% (no changes)
- Bitcoin ether ratio: 0.03722 (unchanged)
- Hashrat (seven -day mobile): 1,059 eh/s
- HASHPRICE (SPOT): $ 50.69
- Total rates: 4.14 BTC / $ 495,121
- Cme future open interest: 141,485 BTC
- BTC with a gold price: 31.2 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 8.81%
Technical analysis
- Ether has diverted to the weekly range after touching the exponential (EMA) mobile average of 100 days in the daily graph and is now quoted at the level of $ 4,500.
- While the price is quoted above all key EMAS in the newspaper, it is currently within a block of bass daily orders, an area of ​​interest for a possible setback.
- Bulls will want to see a rupture above this level followed by a new successful test to aim at rank maximums and, eventually, the maximums of all time.
Cryptographic equities
- Global Coinbase (Coin): Closed on Thursday at $ 372.07 ( +7.48%), +0.36% at $ 373.42
- Internet Circle (CRCL): closed at $ 149.72 (+16.04%), -0.68% at $ 148.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 36.52 ( +1.93%), +0.77% at $ 36.80
- Bullish (BLsh): closed at $ 67.91 (+11.68%), -0.6% at $ 67.50
- Mara Holdings (Mara): closed at $ 18.79 ( +0.97%), +0.85% at $ 18.95
- Riot Platforms (Riot): closed at $ 19.25 ( +1.69%), +0.73% at $ 19.39
- Core Scientific (Corz): closed at $ 18.1 (+0.72%)
- CleanSTark (CLSK): closed at $ 15.14 ( +3.77%), +1.52% at $ 15.37
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): closed at $ 46.49 ( +3.15%), +0.56% at $ 46.75
- Exodus movement (exod): closed at $ 30.86 ( +9.01%), +0.42% at $ 30.99
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $ 352.33 (+4.11%), without changes in the previous market
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $ 31.36 (+1.06%), -0.19% at $ 31.30
- Sharplink Gaming (Sbet): closed at $ 18.09 ( +4.15%), +1.05% at $ 18.28
- UPEXI (UPXI): closed at $ 7.29 ( +11.64%), +0.96% at $ 7.36
- LITE STRATEGY (LIT): Closed at $ 2.68 (+4.69%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETFS
- Daily net flow: $ 627.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $ 59.03 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million
Spot Eth Ethfs
- Daily net flow: $ 307.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $ 14.20 billion
- Total eth holdings ~ 6.64 million
Source: Farside Investors
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