Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Monday, February 16 due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the US. We will return on February 17.
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline in its longest losing streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 1.7% in the last 24 hours and 4.8% since Monday morning.
The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 2% in a market that Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson says is driven primarily by fear. In fact, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has been in “extreme fear” territory for almost two weeks.
“The main driver of the market right now is fear. Fear that we will go down,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, investors don’t see good news. If they see an exit ramp, they will take advantage of it.”
To illustrate his point, Nelson pointed to the reaction to Uniswap’s decision. Up 25% after the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock (BLK) said it would make shares of its $2.2 billion BUIDL tokenized US treasury fund tradable on the decentralized exchange. The token has now returned the profits made after that announcement.
“Sellers who were bearish on near-term market direction outweighed bulls who were betting that institutional adoption will boost value in the long term,” he said.
Earlier this week, stronger U.S. payrolls data and a drop in the unemployment rate led traders to reconsider expectations for rate cuts for the year. More guidance may be coming today in the form of inflation figures for the world’s largest economy.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is expected to show year-on-year inflation of 2.5%.
Adding to that uncertainty is concern about a partial shutdown of the US government. The odds of that happening tomorrow are now around 90% on the Kalshi prediction market. If this materializes, expect even more volatility amid thin trading. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- February 13, 8:30 am: US year-on-year core inflation rate for January (previously 2.6%); Monthly est. 0.3% (previously 0.2%)
- February 13, 8:30 am: US year-over-year inflation rate for January (previously 2.7%); Monthly est. 0.3% (previously 0.3%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- February 13: Trump Media & Tech Group (DJT), post-market
- Feb 13: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.07
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- February 15: Connection to unlock 1.56% of its circulating supply worth $15 million.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.75% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $66,933.65 (24 hours: -0.83%)
- ETH is up 2.05% to $1,961.15 (24 hours: -0.97%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 1.48% to 1,913.46 (24 hours: -1.96%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0019% (2.0947% annualized) on Binance
- DXY rises 0.13% to 97.05
- Gold futures rise 1.41% to $4,993.10
- Silver futures rise 3.65% to $78.30
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.21% at 56,941.97
- Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 26,567.12
- The FTSE 100 rises 0.12% to 10,414.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 0.16% to 6,001.38
- DJIA closed Thursday down 1.34% at 49,451.98
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6,832.76
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.03% at 22,597.15
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 2.37% at 32,465.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 1.71% to 3,741.30
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 7 basis points to 4.10%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.27% to 6,832.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.29% to 24,696.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures down 0.33% to 49,358.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $33.55
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
- CME Futures Open Interest: 116,875 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.48%
Technical analysis
- Bitcoin remains pressured below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
- A confirmed weekly close below this level historically indicates an additional 20%-25% capitulation.
- I would take it towards the $51,000 to $54,000 range before a bottom forms.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $141.09 (-7.90%), +5.87% to $149.37 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% to $57.60
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% at $7.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% at $14.32
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% at $17.50
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% at $9.42
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% at $124.89
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% to $7.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% to $6.61
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$410.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$113.1 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.8 million
Source: Farside Investors
