By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range near $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday, as geopolitical tensions and changing macroeconomic expectations keep prices subdued.
While the cryptocurrency saw a slight increase in the last 24-hour period, it failed to surpass $67,000. It is struggling as US President Donald Trump signaled a tougher stance toward Iran, which now threatens the country’s infrastructure.
Brent crude oil reached $120 per barrel in spot markets, levels not seen since 2008, due to the current crisis and its effects on the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil transportation that has effectively been closed.
That surge in energy prices raised inflation expectations and undermined arguments for rate cuts, a key support for bitcoin’s recent rally. Inflation in Europe has already risen to 2.5%, driven by energy costs.
The pressure has revealed a split in the market structure. Institutional inflows into bitcoin ETFs remain steady, with $22 million in net inflows this week. But CryptoQuant data shows that total apparent demand has turned negative, with large holders distributing more than they accumulate.
The data shows that wallets containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have lost almost 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak. Nearly half of all bitcoins in circulation, at current prices, are trading at a loss.
Looking ahead to the long weekend, liquidity will continue to be tight. That leaves Bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility based on developments in the Middle East or macro-linked statements. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- April 3, 8:30 am: US nonfarm payrolls for March estimated at 48,000 (was -92,000)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: US unemployment rate for March estimated at 4.5% (previously 4.4%)
- April 3, 10:00 am: March US ISM Services PMI (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- SSV Network DAO is voting on two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to improve security against phishing and establish a minimum minimum fee for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
- Unlock
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.35% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $66,785.73 (24 hours: +0.65%)
- ETH remains unchanged at $2,058.20 (24 hours: +0.94%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 0.26% to 1,902.32 (24 hours: +0.80%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.77%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0007% (-0.7731% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 99.99
- Gold futures rise 1.07% to $4,701.30
- Silver futures rise 0.60% to $73.17
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49
- Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
- FTSE 100 unchanged at 10,436.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 0.26% to 5,678.00
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.13% at 46,504.67
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 1 bp to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 0.12% to 6,613.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.10% to 24,167.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rise 0.10% to 46,678.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.54 BTC / $170,134
- CME Futures Open Interest: 106,230 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.9 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily oscillations in the Tether dominance rate in candlestick format. The dominance rate represents the stablecoin’s share of the total crypto market.
- The dominance rate is rising again after a temporary pullback or countertrend correction. This breakout suggests that the domain’s broader uptrend has likely resumed.
- This has bearish implications for the broader market, as dollar-pegged assets like Tether often gain dominance during market-wide sell-offs.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged after hours
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% at $17.69
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), –1.03% to $8.62
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged at $12.86
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), –0.62% to $16.13
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), –0.80% at $6.05
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), –0.17% to $35.70
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% at $90.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), –0.19% at $36.30
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% at $9.76
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% to $6.21
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), –2.12% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged at $1.12
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $9 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: -$71.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11,510 million dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first transit through Western Europe during Iran war (euronews): The news could encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days and follows Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi’s announcement of an agreement with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
US repatriates Chinese drug fugitive in sign of stabilizing ties (The Wall Street Journal): This is the first such case in recent years and is described as a rare move that points to cooperation ahead of the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for next month.
Iran Attacks Gulf Energy Sites as Trump Warns of New Attacks (Bloomberg) – Iran attacked more sites in Arab Gulf states, including Kuwait, on Friday morning, hours after Trump issued new threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran to enter peace talks.
Japan ramps up currency pressure as volatility rises, signaling readiness to act (Reuters): The yen, trading near the psychologically key 160 per dollar mark, held at levels stoking concerns of market intervention, highlighting growing concerns about the speed and scale of its decline.
